GOLD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

Momentum in Norwegian retail sales has levelled off over the last few months, but remains positive. As such, retail sales should contribute positively to Q2 household consumption, due towards the end of August. 

• Sales excluding motor vehicles were flat M/M (vs 0.1% prior), but 3m/3m growth was still 1.1% (vs 1.5% in May and 1.7% in March).
• Excluding both motor vehicles and fuel, sales rose 0.2% in June (vs -0.3% prior), with 3m/3m growth at 1.4% (after four consecutive months at 1.5%).
• Q2 and Q3 retail trade output expectations were both 0.5% Q/Q in the June Norges Bank Regional Network Survey.
• Next week’s inflation report will be more important for the Norges Bank outlook. We think an in line (with the June MPR) print should be consistent with a quarterly pace of cuts in September and December. 

• RES 4: $81.12 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $77.75 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $69.41/75.98 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $66.70 @ 07:11 BST Jul 29 
• SUP 1: $64.85/62.84 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 
• SUP 2: $58.17 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.66 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.01 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the shallow recovery since Jun 24 still appears corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $64.85. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range.

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3373.6/3439.0 - High Jul 25 / 23             
• PRICE: 3319.6 @ 07:19 BST Jul 29 
• SUP 1: $3301.9 - Low Jul 27 
• SUP 2: $3282.8/3248.7 - Low Jul 9 / Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3322.9, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose the next key support at $3282.8, the Jul 9 low. Key short-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish.