US: HFC Floats Corporation Tax Hike To Resolve Standoff Over SALT

Jan-16 15:05

The conservative House Freedom Caucus has proposed a corporate tax hike to offset the cost of raising the cap on State and Local Tax deductions (SALT) - a singular political priority for a handful of blue-state Republicans, and one of the most challenging issues to resolve in reconciliation budget talks. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is eyeing an April floor vote for a huge energy, tax, border security reconciliation bill but is hamstrung by the spending priorities of HFC and SALT Republicans, both of whom can sink legislation.

  • Politico: “Under the proposal, blue-state Republicans would have to agree to restrict the SALT deduction for corporations in exchange for easing a cap on the deduction for individuals and families."
  • Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-MD) said in an interview: “I think a lot of us in the Freedom Caucus think that … if they came to that kind of compromise where increasing individual [SALT] deductions was paid for by corporate SALT, then we’d probably be all right with that. Obviously, in the current fiscal situation, we can’t be giving away money.”
  • Roll Call noted this week: "House Republicans seeking SALT relief hold differing views on where to set the cap, but a limit between roughly $20,000 and $60,000 seems to be the range under consideration."
  • The Bipartisan Policy Center notes, removing the SALT deduction for corporate income taxes would raise roughly USD$190 billion over 10 years, dropping to roughly USD$134 billion when corresponding economic effects are considered.

Historical bullets

FOREX: USDCHF Pullbacks Could Provide Buying Opportunity in Case of Hawkish Fed

Dec-17 15:00

USDCHF extended its post-SNB gains this morning to clear resistance and touch a new multi-month high at 0.8975. The softer-than-expected core US retail sales dragged the pair off highs, but this morning's rally affirms USDCHF could benefit further on a more hawkish-than-expected FOMC meeting.

  • Hawkish risks stem from a potential signalling of just 50bps of cuts across 2025, as well as any "negative market reaction to a higher terminal rate forecast, with a funds rate that settles above 3%." (Our full Fed preview here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Dec2024_With_Analysts_5b1eec4e36.pdf )
  • This is compounded by the remaining bearish factors for CHF; namely negative inflation momentum which, if sustained, would further raise the risk of more aggressive SNB easing. Even as President Schlegel has cautioned against taking rates negative, implied market pricing through the Sept'25 meeting has extended lower to -7bps at the time of writing.
  • As a result, a successful buy-on-dips approach would isolate the 0.9024 Fib level as initial resistance ahead of 0.9050, the July 2 high.

MNI: US OCT BUSINESS INVENTORIES +0.1%; SALES +0.0%

Dec-17 15:00
  • MNI: US OCT BUSINESS INVENTORIES +0.1%; SALES +0.0%
  • US OCT RETAIL INVENTORIES +0.2%

MNI: US NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX 46 IN DEC

Dec-17 15:00
  • MNI: US NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX 46 IN DEC
  • US NAHB DEC SINGLE FAMILY SALES INDEX 48; NEXT 6-MO 66