FED: Citi: Next Rate Cut Pushed From July To September
Jun-06 20:04
As mentioned earlier, Citi pushed back their expectation for the next Fed cut following today's nonfarm payrolls report. They now see the Fed easing in September, vs their prior call for July. Citi had been one of the last holdouts for a cut before September.
- "We expect slowing job growth and more importantly a rising unemployment rate in the coming months to push the Fed to resume rate cuts. But we think today’s headline numbers will keep the Fed on hold for now..."
- They maintain their view that rates will be cut 125bp overall: "We expect 75bps of rate cuts this year (25bps in September, October, and December) and 50bps next year (25bps in January and March). Risks skew toward more aggressive cuts, and we would not be too surprised by a repeat of last year with the Fed cutting 50bps in September after declining to cut in July."
- On NFP, they note the uptick in the unemployment rate in particular: "Most importantly, we take seriously that the unemployment rate nearly rounded up to 4.3% (4.244% in May is a new cycle high) and would be closer to 4.6% if not for the drop in labor force participation."
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USDCAD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
May-07 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 2: 1.4055 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3901 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3777 @ 16:41 BST May 7
- SUP 1: 1.3751 Low May 6
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
Bearish conditions in USDCAD remain intact and the pair is trading at its recent lows. A fresh cycle low last Friday reinforces the bearish theme signalling scope for a continuation, near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. On the upside, first resistance to watch is 1.3901, the 20-day EMA.
STIR: Tiny Net Moves On FOMC and Powell
May-07 19:50
- Powell consistently talking on the need for patience and greater clarity before moving rates (we count “wait” 25 times in a rough transcript) has reversed the initially modest dovish reaction to the FOMC announcement.
- Politics clouds the moves though. As we noted earlier the initial rally also seemed to be boosted by Trump headlines shortly beforehand on being unwilling to lower tariffs on China in order to get it to the table landing. On the other hand, Bloomberg reporting just now that the Trump administration plans to rescind Biden-era AI chip curbs has marginally helped pare gains.
- It leaves a Fed Funds rate path back broadly unchanged for 2025 meetings from pre-FOMC levels.
- Cumulative cuts from an assumed 4.33% effective: 6bp Jun, 22bp Jul, 43bp Sep, 60.5bp Oct and 79bp Dec.
- SOFR futures implied yields are holding some small declines further out the curve, with SFRZ6 2bps lower post-FOMC (for -1.5bp on the day). This sees the terminal yield of 3.105% having technically ticked over from U6 earlier today.
US TSYS: BLOCK: Large Jun'25 5Y Sale
May-07 19:49
- -21,000 FVM5 108-19.25, sale through 108-20.5 post time bid at 1533:16ET, DV01 $900,000.
