EU CREDIT SUPPLY: Hera (HERIM Baa2/BBB+/NR): Guidance

• Treasuries are mostly lower on the day after selling impetus following a dovish monetary policy tweak from the PBOC, although volumes have been light as US CPI on Wednesday and approaching year-end seems to weigh on activity.
• Cash yields are unchanged (2s) to 2bp higher (30s).
• 2s10s has steepened to 6.3bps (+1.2bp) but remains within last week’s range.
• TYH5 trades at 111-13 (- 01+) off session highs of 111-18+ but has remained within Friday’s range throughout the overnight session, all on very low cumulative volumes of 235k.
• Friday’s post-payrolls high of 111-20+ cleared the 50-day EMA and strengthens a bull cycle. It’s now an initial resistance level after which lies 111-23 (38.2% retrace of Sep 11 – Nov 15 bear leg). To the downside, support at 110-18 (Dec 4 low).
• Data: Wholesale inventories, trade sales Oct F/Oct (1000ET), NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Nov (1100ET)
• Fedspeak: FOMC media blackout
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $81B 13W & $72B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)

• On the commodity front, Gold is unchanged and continues to trade inside a tight range, for now. The long-term trend condition remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance to watch is $2721.4, the Nov 25 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a bullish short-term development. Key support to monitor is $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.
• In the oil space, a bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent weakness reinforces this theme. A continuation down would open $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $72.41, the Nov 7 high.

Fresh session lows for S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100 e-minis following news that Nvidia is being probed by the Chinese authorities on anti-monopoly grounds.

• The tech giant is now indicated 2.1% lower pre-market.
• E-mini moves are relatively limited at this stage.
• Contracts had already traded away from session highs as optimism surrounding the dovish tweak in the Chinese monetary policy stance proved short-lived.
• Marginal outperformance in the DJIA e-mini since the headlines, given relative sensitivity to tech.