US NATGAS: Henry Hub Volatile as Expiry Approaches

May-28 17:05

Henry Hub has drifted down further today as the approaching expiry sparks volatile trading.

  • US Natgas JUL 25 down 4.6% at 3.57$/mmbtu
  • Forecasts for US inventory changes: 97 bcf (Bbg), 93 bcf (WSJ). 5-year avg. 98 bcf
  • Lower 48 natural gas demand is up 2.3 bcf/d on the day to 68.4 bcf/d and is above the 7-day average of 66.3 bcf/d, BNEF shows.
  • The latest NOAA 6-14 forecast shows that temperatures in the east and Midwest have moved above normal, while Mountain and Pacific regions are shifting below normal.
  • A tropical depression named Alvin will form of Mexico’s coast this week according to the US National Hurricane Center, starting off what is likely to be a busy hurricane season, Bloomberg said.
  • Total feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals are down 300 mmcf/d today to 14.50 bcf/d, Bloomberg shows, slightly below the 7-day average of 14.7 bcf/d.
  • US domestic natural gas production is at 106.3 bcf/d today, down from 106.8 bcf/d yesterday to the lowest since May 15. It compares to the 7-day average of 106.9 bcf/d according to BNEF.

Historical bullets

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

Apr-28 17:00
  • RES 4: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing 
  • RES 3: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
  • RES 2: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
  • RES 1: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger  
  • PRICE: 1.1387 @ 16:40 BST Apr 28
  • SUP 1: 1.1308 Low Apr 23
  • SUP 2: 1.1217 20-day EMA and a key support    
  • SUP 3: 1.1144/0968 High Apr 3 / 50-day EMA and a pivot level     
  • SUP 4: 1.0805 Low Apr 3  

The latest pullback in EURUSD is considered corrective and the trend structure remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a dominant uptrend, and the latest move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would open 1.1608 next, the Nov 9 2021 high. Key support is unchanged at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1217. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. 

OPTIONS: Busier Than Usual Session For Sonia, Especially Call Structures

Apr-28 16:52

Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

  • RXM5 130/129 put spread, paper pays 23 in 5.9k
  • 2RZ5 97.25/97.00 put spread, paper sells for 2.75 on 10k
  • SFIK5 95.85/95.90/96.00/96.05c condor, sold at 2.5 in 2.5k
  • SFIK5 96.20/96.30cs, bought for 1 in 2k
  • SFIM5 95.75/95.85/95.95c fly, sold at 2.5 down to 2.25 in 6k
  • SFIU5 96.35/96.6/96.85c fly, bought for 4.5 in 7k

STIR: Midday SOFR Options Update

Apr-28 16:40
  • -4,000 SFRH6/0QH6 98.00 call spds, 0.75 midcurve over
  • -5,000 SFRZ5 95.37/95.50/95.87 1x call flys, 6.25 vs. 96.59/0.17%
  • Block/screen, -12,000 SFRN5 96.50/97.00 call spds, 7.0 ref 92.265
  • -2,000 SFRZ5 98.00/99.00 call spds, 4.5