NATO: Henry Hub Extends Losses
Dec-13 17:32
Henry Hub has extended its losses on the day to completely reverse yesterday’s storage withdrawal related gains. Rising temperatures and lower residential demand are adding pressure.
- US Natgas JAN 25 down 5.2% at 3.28$/mmbtu
- US Natgas FEB 25 down 3.4% at 3.1$/mmbtu
- EBW Analytics sees possibility of 19 Bcf/d demand loss next week though Christmas week looks colder. Jan gas down 3.1% at $3.35/mmBtu.
- The EIA weekly gas inventories showed a larger than expected withdrawal for the week ending Dec. 6 at 190bcf.
- US natural gas storage likely saw an above-average draw of 119 bcf in the week to Dedc. 13, according to a Reuters survey.
- US LNG export terminal feedgas supply is estimated near the highest since January at 14.32bcf/d today, BNEF said.
- Lower 48 natural gas demand edges lower to 106.3bcf/d today but remain above normal, according to Bloomberg.
- The NOAA forecast has cooled slightly with above normal still in the west but near normal spreading further from the west in the 6–10-day period. The 8–14-day forecast shows below normal on the East Coast.
- US domestic natural gas production rose to the highest since Feb. at 105.7bcf/d yesterday, according to Bloomberg.
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FOREX: USDJPY Extends to Session Highs, Prints Fresh Recovery Peak of 155.43
Nov-13 17:28
- Despite the lower front-end yields in the US following today’s softer-than-expected supercore inflation data, USDJPY has joined the broader greenback reversal and has printed the highest level since July in the process, reaching a fresh recovery peak of 155.43.
- The yen had been relatively resilient in the aftermath of the data; however, the underlying dollar optimism has prevailed, and the data appears to have merely provided a more attractive entry point for market participants.
- Overall, this week’s climb has resulted in a breach of resistance at 154.71, the Nov 07 high, to confirm a resumption of the technical uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
- Furthermore, clearance of 155.27 (Fibonacci projection) bolsters this theme and signals scope for a more protracted move to 156.67 and 157.86, the Jul 19 high.
- BoJ policy and the FX approach of the Japanese authorities becomes key here, with markets re-entering levels at which the Japanese authorities intervened in currency markets, however given the sharp gyrations in short-end US rates markets, it's unlikely recent price action meets the criteria for intervention, especially with current expectations for a BOJ rate hike in either December or January.
PIPELINE: $2B China 2Pt US$ Debt Issuance Launched
Nov-13 17:22
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 11/13 $2B #People's Republic of China $1.25B 3Y +1, $750M 5Y +3
- 11/13 $Benchmark BP Capital PerpNC10 6.375%a
- 11/13 $Benchmark Swedbank 5Y +90a, 5Y SOFR
- 11/13 $Benchmark BNY Mellon 11NC10 +100a
- 11/13 $Benchmark Bank of NY Mellon 11NC10 +100a
- 11/13 $Benchmark Huntington Ingalls Industries 5Y +140a, 10Y +165a
- 11/13 $Benchmark Gilead 5Y +75a, +10Y +95a, 30Y +115a, 40Y +125a
- 11/13 $Benchmark Cardinal Health 2Y +65a, 5Y +90a, 10Y +120a, 30Y +140a
US: Thune Elected Republican Senate Leader
Nov-13 17:12
Senator John Thune (R-SD) has been elected leader of the Senate Republican caucus, defeating senators Rick Scott (R-FL) and John Cornyn (R-TX) in two rounds of secret ballot voting. In January 2025, when lawmakers return to Washington for the 119th Congress, Thune will assume the role of Senate Majority Leader. He will be tasked with rallying support for President-elect Trump's legislative agenda in the upper chamber and setting the agenda for executive and judicial branch nominations.
- Thune will lead a 53-47 majority in the Senate. The three-seat buffer will give Thune strong leverage to work around senators Lisa Murkowski (R-AL) and Susan Collins (R-ME) - two moderate Republicans who may have operated as a centrist block on Republican legislation, as Democrats Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema did during the first half of Biden's term.
- Thune will assume the role with considerable experience managing Senate proceedings, having acted as proxy leader for Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) during his health problems for much of the last year.
- The Hill notes that Thune has, "pledged to hold regular meetings with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to improve coordination with House Republicans and with Vice President-elect JD Vance to stay in sync with the Trump White House," suggesting a more coherent legislative for Trump during his second term.
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