US NATGAS: Henry Hub Edges Lower Amid Winter Cold Disruption

Jan-22 13:06

Henry Hub is edging lower as the market weighs the impact of an outage at Freeport LNG and winter cold hitting the USGC while weather forecasts point to rising temperatures next week.

  • Lower 48 natural gas demand remains well above normal at 130.3bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg compared to the previous five year average of around 104bcf/d. US temperatures are forecast to gradually rise in the coming week to rise back above normal from mid next week.
  • US domestic natural gas production is estimated back to 100.8bcf/d today after falling to a low of 97.9bcf/d yesterday, according to Bloomberg, with output curtailed due to cold weather.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas is showing at 11.79bcf/d today compared to a low of 10.8bcf/d yesterday, according to Bloomberg. Freeport’s operations were yesterday taken offline due to power interruptions but could be back in production soon once power supplies are restored. Feedgas to the terminal fell to almost zero yesterday and is showing at 0.32bcf/d today.
  • Export flows to Mexico are up to 6.23bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures was at 658k on Jan. 21.
    • US Natgas FEB 25 down 0.5% at 3.74$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas JUL 25 up 0.3% at 3.82$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas JAN 26 down 0.1% at 4.76$/mmbtu

Historical bullets

US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Names Key Defense And Econ Nominees

Dec-23 13:04
  • US President-elect Donald Trump delivered a wide-ranging 90-minute speech in Phoenix, Arizona on Sunday, doubling down on a new threat to bring the Panama Canal back under US control.
  • Trump suggested he could meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin shortly after assuming office on January 20, repeating that resolving the war in Ukraine is “one of the things I want to do quickly.”
  • Trump announced another round of executive branch nominations, including Stephen Miran to chair the Council of Economic Advisers – a three-member panel that advises the president on economic policy.
  • Trump nominated Stephen Feinberg as Deputy Secretary of Defense and Elbridge Colby to serve as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. Colby, a prominent China hawk, is likely to advocate Trump dedicate more military resources to the Indo-Pacific and lean on European powers to step up defence commitments.
  • Rep. French Hill (R-AK), the incoming Chair of the House Financial Services Committee has been, “pushing for innovation in the banking sector for nearly half a century.”
  • The Biden administration has scrapped plans for a mass cancellation of student debt, with Education Secretary Miguel Cardona acknowledging, “uncertainty around the implementation” of the proposals.
  • The Biden administration has launched an investigation into Chinese-made "legacy" semiconductors that could result in additional tariffs on mature-technology chips.
  • Poll of the Day: Swing-state voters have positive expectations about how a Trump presidency could affect their personal finances. 

Full article: US Daily Brief

STIR: Repo Reference Rates

Dec-23 13:00
  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.30% (+0.00), volume: $2.330T
  • Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.28% (+0.02), volume: $849B
  • Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.28% (+0.02), volume: $817B
  • (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

GBP: GBP/USD Under Pressure Through NY Crossover as Yields See Support

Dec-23 12:41

The grind higher in US Treasury yields at the NY crossover is adding extra weight to GBP/USD, which has been ebbing lower slowly, but surely, over the European morning. The revision lower for Q3 GDP (down to flat for Q3) won't be helping, but the decline has been largely USD-led.

  • The fade in the pair is still well clear of the Friday low, however prices are now back below the 1.2533 support - the 23.6% retracement for the post-Fed slip lower in the pair. Support seen more significant into 1.2476.
  • EUR/GBP gains have put the cross back above the 0.83 handle. The overnight high at 0.8315 is just a few pips shy of the 0.8319 50-dma, which marks first resistance having been tested and containing prices on three occasions over the past week or so.
  • US data is the sole event risk today - while building permits are unlikely to shake prices, prelim durable goods data for November could prove consequential, as well as the consumer confidence print for December.