AMERICAS OIL: Hedge Funds Cut Net Bullish Nymex Diesel Bets to 14-Week Low

• RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6569/6625 High Aug 14 / 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6524 High Aug 18
• PRICE: 0.6487 @ 16:01 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg 
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD is holding on to its latest gains following the recovery from last week’s low. The rally signals the end of the recent corrective phase, backed up by Wednesday’s sharp bounce off the daily low. A continuation higher here would signal scope for a climb towards 0.6569, the Aug 14 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.6625, the Aug 24 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. A clear break of it would resume the bear leg.  

SOFR/Treasury option volumes improved in the second half, flow mixed with large Oct 5Y put buyer in Tsys, SOFR options revolving around better calls. Underlying futures off early session lows with TYZ5 nearing initial resistance at 112-15.5 (High Aug 5 and the bull trigger), curves twist steeper with 2s10s +3.063 at 61.112 (near Mid-April levels last seen early 2022)., 5s30s +2.986 at 120.423. Projected rate cuts have gained slightly vs. early morning (*) levels: Sep'25 at -21.6bp (-21.4bp), Oct'25 at -34.6bp (-34.1bp), Dec'25 at -55.6bp (-54.4bp), Jan'26 at -69.1bp (-68.1bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +8,000 SFRZ5 96.50/97.00 call spds, 4.125 ref 96.235
  • 5,000 0QZ5 97.50 calls ref 97.025
  • +20,000 SFRH6 96.75/97.25 call spds, 8.5
  • -5,000 SFRU6 95.50/98.25 call over risk reversals, 5.0 vs. 96.925
  • -4,000 SFRH6 96.50 calls, 22.5 vs. 96.495/0.50%
  • -5,000 SFRM6 97.00/97.50 call spds vs. 3QM6 96.87/97.37 call spds, 0.0 net
  • -5,000 SFRZ5 96.00 puts, 4.5
  • -2,500 SFRU6 97.75/98.00 call strip w/ 96.00 put vs. 96.87 straddle, 42.0 total (straddle sold over)
  • Block, 5,700 SFRU5 96.00/96.06/96.18/96.25 call condors 0.5 ref 95.89
  • +2,500 SFRU5 96.00/96.06/96.18/96.25 call condors, 0.5 vs 95.9175/0.05%
  • 2,000 2QZ5 96.25/96.37/96.62 broken put flys, 4.5 ref 96.85/0.10%
  • +2,000 0QU5/2QU5 97.12 call spds, 1.0 net
  • 2,600 SFRF6 96.50 calls ref 96.475
• Treasury Options:
  • Block/screen +50,000 FVV5 108.5 puts, 6.5-7.0 vs. 109-13.75/0.18%
  • +12,000 wk5 TY 112.5 calls, 7 vs. 112-12/0.36%
  • -3,000 TYV5 111/113.5 strangles, 29
  • -2,500 TYV5 112.25 straddles, 120
  • +4,000 TYX5 109.5/113 strangles, 48
  • 4,000 TYV5 112.5/113/113.5 call flys
  • +1,600 TUZ5 104.5/105.25 2x3 call spds, 13
  • 1,900 USV5 111.5/112.5 put spds ref 113-30
  • -2,500 USV5 111 puts, 23 ref 114-00
  • +2,000 TYV5 109.5 puts, 4 vs. 112-00.5/0.08%

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.02/97 High Aug 13 / High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 171.40 @ 16:00 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 170.56 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

EURJPY is in consolidation mode. The trend structure remains bullish and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 170.56. A clear break of the average is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position reinforcing the primary uptrend. Key resistance to watch is the Jul 28 high of 173.97, a break would confirm a continuation of the bull cycle.