AMERICAS OIL: Hedge Fund Managers Flip to Net Bullish on Nymex Diesel

Decent SOFR & Treasury option flow on the day, leaning towards downside rate hedges and curve steepeners fading today's flattening. Underlying futures near late session lows as early sentiment over slashing China tariffs evaporated. Projected rate cuts continue to retreat from this morning's levels (*) as follows: May'25 at -2.1bp (-2.7bp), Jun'25 at -15.1bp (-17.7bp), Jul'25 at -33.6bp (-36.9bp), Sep'25 -51.6bp (-55.2bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • -7,000 SFRM5 95.87 calls, 9.5
  • +10,000 SFRK5 95.68/95.75 put spds, 0.75
  • Block, -5,000 SFRZ5 96.62/97.12 call spds, 13.0 vs. 96.49/0.18%
  • +20,000 0QM5/0QN5 97.00/97.25 call spd spd, 1.25 net/July over
  • -10,000 SFRM5 95.75/95.93/96.18/96.37 call condors, 5.5 ref 95.89
  • +4,000 0QU5 97.00/97.50 call spds 1.25 over 2QU5 96.87/97.37 call spds
  • +10,000 SFRU5 95.25/95.75 put spds, 3.25 ref 96.245
  • -4,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.50/96.81 broken call flys, 1.0 ref 96.505
  • 10,000 SFRU5 95.75/95.87/96.00 put trees, 0.5 ref 96.24
  • Blocks, 12,000 0QM5 96.87/97.25 call spds, 10.5 ref 96.76
  • 5,000 SFRM5 95.62 puts & 5,900 USM5 95.75 puts
  • 3,000 SFRZ5 95.37/95.62 put spds ref 96.495
  • 3,000 SFRM5 96.18 calls, 5.0 ref 95.88
  • 3,300 SFRZ5 95.37/95.81 put spds ref 96.49
  • Blocks, 6,700 SFRU5 95.25/95.75 put spds, 3.75
  • 2,000 SFRK5 95.68/95.75 2x1 put spds ref 95.88
  • 2,000 SFRM5 96.25/96.37 call spds ref 95.855
  • 2,000 SFRK5 96.12/96.25 call spds vs. 95.75 puts ref 95.90
• Treasury Options:
  • 6,500 TYM5 111 calls, 59, total volume over 33.5k
  • 5,000 TYK5 110.5 puts, 7 ref 111-00.5
  • 5,000 TYM5 111 puts, 54 ref 111-03 total volume over 26k
  • +7,500 TYM5 111 straddles, 156
  • 2,000 TYN5 109/114 strangles ref 111-10
  • 1,058 FVM5 108.5/109.5/110.5 call flys ref 108-12
  • +1,000 FVK5 108.25/108.5 strangles, 18.5 ref 108-11.75
  • over 19,900 TYK5 111.5 calls
  • over 14,400 TYM5 112 calls, 36 last
  • over 10,500 TYM5 115.5 calls, 4 last
  • over 3,600 USM5 117 calls, 108 last ref 115-10
  • 1,600 TYK5 111/111.5 strangles ref 111-04
  • 1,500 FVN5 107/108 put spds ref 108-09.75
  • Block, 10,000 TYM5 112/115.5 call spds, 30 vs 111-01/0.28%
  • 1,500 FVM5 109/110/110.5 broken call flys ref 108-06.5
  • 1,500 TYK5 110.5/111.75 call spds ref 110-31.5
  • 9,000 USM5 118/120 call spds, 18 ref 114-14
  • 3,600 TYK5 111.5 calls, 6 ref 110-28.5

• RES 4: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6439 High Apr 22
• PRICE: 0.6391 @ 16:20 BST Apr 23 
• SUP 1: 0.6349/6299 Low Apr 21 / 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 0.6181 Low Apr 11  
• SUP 3: 0.6116 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 0.5915 Low Apr 9 and key support  

AUDUSD is holding on to its recent gains and a bullish theme remains intact. The pair has breached a key resistance at 0.6409, the Dec 9 ‘24 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 0.6471 next, the Dec 9 2024 high. Initial key support to monitor is 0.6299, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a concern for bulls.         

• 10,000 TYM5 111/113 call spds, 34 vs. 110-19.5/0.26%