US NATGAS: Hedge Fund Managers Cut Net Bullish Natural Gas Bets

As noted earlier ("Canada Mar Building Permits Fall But Q1 Shows 5th Straight Increase"), Canadian building permits fell 4.1% M/M in March, below the -1.2% expected though offset by a 2pp upward revision to prior (4.9%). 

• The non-residential sector's drop of -14.5% M/M - due largely to a fall in commercial permits - was the worst outturn in 18 months, and particularly concerning in the context of the ongoing trade war with the US. The report notes, "The reduction in commercial construction intentions in March 2025 was most pronounced in Ontario (-$268.6 million), and it was supported by declines in British Columbia (-$187.1 million), three additional provinces and two territories."
• The value drop in non-residential (CAD$716.3M), was offset by overall higher residential sector permits (CAD166.9M). Residential permits were mixed, with multi-family up 2% but single-family down 5.3%.
• Residential permits have held up despite both housing starts and existing home sales falling to around post-Covid lows.
• Overall permits are up 15% Y/Y, and despite the March decline, on a quarterly basis they rose for the 5th consecutive quarter. This suggests scope for further housing construction gains (around 2/3 of total permits) in coming quarters, though consensus via Bloomberg shows flattening housing starts (233-235k per quarter through Q2 2026, vs 248k in Q4 2024), the pullback in non-residential intentions could pose downside risks to fixed investment. 

• RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24  
• RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7 
• PRICE: 0.6456 @ 16:00 BST May 14
• SUP 1: 0.6349 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14    
• SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10  

The trend condition in AUDUSD is bullish and the latest move down is considered corrective. Tuesday’s strong gains signal the end of the corrective pullback and attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger, at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to monitor is 0.6349, the 50-day EMA. 

SOFR & Treasury options look two-way/paired as underlying futures continued to gradually extend lows after the bell. Projected rate cut pricing steady in the near term while longer dates retreat vs. this morning levels (*) as follows: Jun'25 steady at -2.1bp, Jul'25 steady at -9.8bp, Sep'25 at -22.8bp (-24.7bp), Oct'25 at -34.8bp (-37.3bp), Dec'25 at -49.6bp (-52.9bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +5,000 SFRU5 96.62/97.12 call spds, 1.62 ref 95.905
  • +5,000 SFRQ5 95.62/95.75/95.81/95.87 put condors, 0.75 ref 95.905
  • +30,000 SFRZ5 95.62/96.00 put spds vs. 0QZ5 95.87/96.25 put spds, 1.75-2.0 db bear curve flattener
  • +20,000 SFRU5 97.50 calls, 1.5
  • -4,000 2QM5 96.12/96.37 put spds, 5.5 ref 96.495
  • Block, 10,000 SFRM6 96.37/98.25 call spds, 42.0 vs. 96.505/0.42%
  • 5,000 SFRU5/SFRZ5 95.68/95.81 put spd spd, 2.0 Sep over
  • +5,000 SFRN5 95.50/95.62/95.68/95.81 put condors, 3.0 ref 95.93
  • -4,000 SFRZ5 95.75/96.00 put spds, 9
  • 3,000 SFRV5 95.62/95.81/95.87 put trees ref 96.205
  • Block, 2,500 SFRM5 95.75/95.81/95.93/96.00 put condors, 0.25 ref 95.705
  • -4,000 SFRU5 96.25/96.75 call spds, 4.5 ref 95.94
  • 4,000 OQK5 96.62/96.87 2x1 put spds ref 96.53
• Treasury Options:
  • 4,500 TUN5 103.75/104 2x3 call spds, 1.5 net ref 103-15.5
  • 3,000 TYN5 108/108.5 put spds 5 ref 110-02.5
  • +5,000 TYU5 133 calls, 33 ref 110-00 to -00.5
  • +1,000 TYM5 110.25/110.75/111.25 2x3x1 call flys, 16
  • -2,000 TYM5 110.25 straddles, 53
  • -7,500 TYM5 109.5 puts, 11
  • 4,200 FVM5 108.75 calls, 2 last
  • 3,200 FVM5 107.5 puts, 18 last
  • -1,250 FVM5 107.5/107.75/108.25 broken put flys, 15 vs. 107-19.5/0.05%
  • +1,000 FVM5 108.25/108.75 call spds, 3.5