HUNGARY: Headline CPI Expected to Remain Above NBH Tolerance Range in September

• RES 4: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: 120.61 High Aug 14 
• RES 2: 120.20 High Aug 15  
• RES 1: 120.25 High Sep 5
• PRICE: 120.07 @ Close Sep 5
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and the direction remains up. The strong rally from last week’s low highlights a bullish development and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.

• RES 4: 92.06 High Aug 14 
• RES 3: 92.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 91.45 High Aug 15
• RES 1: 91.32 High Sep 5 
• PRICE: 91.23 @ Close Sep 5
• SUP 1: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3 
• SUP 2: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 89.00 Round number support  
• SUP 4: 88.84 2.00 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing    

A strong rally in Gilt futures last week highlights a stronger corrective cycle.  Note that a move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. The contract has breached initial firm resistance at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high. A continuation higher would open 92.06, the Aug 14 high. For bears, a reversal lower and a resumption of the bear leg would signal scope for a move towards 89.22 next, a Fibonacci projection.

• MNI: GERMANY JUL EXPORTS -0.6% M/M; IMPORTS -0.1% M/M
• GERMANY JUL TRADE BALANCE EUR +14.7 BLN