USDCAD TECHS: Heading South
- RES 4: 1.3777 High Nov 16
- RES 3: 1.3712 High Nov 24
- RES 2: 1.3619 High Dec 7 and 12 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 1.3520 High Dec 14
- PRICE: 1.3376 @ 09:55 GMT Dec 15
- SUP 1: 1.3320 Low Aug 4
- SUP 2: 1.3283 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
- SUP 3: 1.3278 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.3184 Low Aug 1
The USDCAD trend outlook remains bearish and yesterday’s sell-off reinforces this condition. The pair has cleared the bear trigger at 1.3480, the Dec 4 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and ends the consolidation phase posted since the beginning of December. Sights are on 1.3283, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3619, the Dec 7 / 12 high.
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USD: Finding an underlying bid
- The USD finds a small bid against the SEK, NOK, EUR, CAD, albeit still well within Yesterday's wide ranges.
- The Pound is the worst performer and looking to make another attempt at the intraday low in Cable.
- Small support in Cable is still seen at 1.2428 initially.
- EU and US Equities fade from their highs.
EQUITIES: E-Mini S&P Extends Post-CPI Gains
A short-term bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract traded higher Tuesday. Price has recently cleared resistance at both the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a bullish development. Note that yesterday’s gains resulted in a breach of resistance at 4256.00, the Oct 12 high. The focus is on 4329.80, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support to watch is at 4176.00, the 20-day EMA. S&P e-minis maintain a firmer tone and the contract traded sharply higher yesterday, extending the current bull cycle. Resistance at 4422.00, a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high, has been cleared. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for gains towards 4552.38, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 4357.23, the 20-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 823.77 pts or +2.52% at 33519.7 and the TOPIX ended 27.93 pts higher or +1.19% at 2373.22.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 16.765 pts or +0.55% at 3072.835 and the HANG SENG ended 682.14 pts higher or +3.92% at 18079.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 75.8 pts or +0.49% at 15690.99, FTSE 100 higher by 69.18 pts or +0.93% at 7509.8, CAC 40 up 44.15 pts or +0.61% at 7229.83 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 25.04 pts or +0.58% at 4316.76.
- Dow Jones mini up 58 pts or +0.17% at 34947, S&P 500 mini up 10.5 pts or +0.23% at 4521.5, NASDAQ mini up 59 pts or +0.37% at 15938.75.
GILT SYNDICATION: New 20-year 4.75% Oct-43 Gilt: Spread set
- Spread set at Guidance: 4.50% Dec-42 gilt (GB00B1VWPJ53) +5.75 bps (guidance was +5.75/+6.25 bps)
- Size: GBP benchmark (MNI expects GBP5-7bln)
- Books size: In excess of GBP80bln (inc JLM interest of GBP5.8bln)
- Settlement Date: 16 November 2023 (T+1)
- ISIN : GB00BPJJKP77
- Timing : Books to close at 10:00GMT
- Joint Leads : Barclays (B&D/DM), HSBC, Lloyds, Morgan Stanley, UBS
