EURUSD TECHS: Heading South
- RES 4: 1.1005 High Aug 11
- RES 3: 1.0945 High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 1.0810 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0719/69 20-day EMA / High Sep 12
- PRICE: 1.0564 @ 19:56 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 1.0551 Low Mar 16
- SUP 2: 1.0516 Low Mar 15 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.0484 Low Jan 6
- SUP 4: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
The EURUSD trend condition is bearish and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low again today, extending the current bearish run. The recent clearance of 1.0632, the Sep 14 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0551 next, the Mar 16 low. Initial firm resistance is 1.0719, the 20-day EMA.
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USDCAD TECHS: Trading At The Week’s Highs
- RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
- RES 3: 1.3732 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
- RES 2: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3640 High Aug 25
- PRICE: 1.3628 @ 16:51 BST Aug 25
- SUP 1: 1.3496 Low Aug 21
- SUP 2: 1.3451 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3381 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2
USDCAD is trading at this week’s highs. The fresh cycle high on Wednesday reinforces the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A clear break of 1.3600 would expose 1.3655, May 26 high. Note that a trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high, is at 1.3732 and represents an objective further out. Support to watch is 1.3451, the 20-day EMA.
US TSYS: Tsys Off Lows, Chair Powell Tone Balanced At Jackson Hole
- US rates are holding mildly weaker after the bell, near the middle of the session range after early event driven volatility. Treasury futures initially trade weaker/extend lows in reaction to Fed Chairman Powell's keynote speech from Jackson Hole economic summit, and just as quickly reversed course.
- Stocks are trading firmer in late trade, headed back near early session highs as Fed Chairman Powell's speech from Jackson Hole deemed more balanced, or at the least: not as hawkish as it could have been.
- “We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective,” Powell said in his widely awaited Jackson Hole speech. “There is substantial further ground to cover to get back to price stability.”
- Powell said he’s pleased to see inflation coming down but is not yet fully convinced that price pressures are on a sustainable path downward to the Fed’s 2% target, particularly because inflation excluding food and energy prices remains more than twice that level.
- Front month 10Y futures marked 109-03.5 low (-15.5) are currently trading 109-13.5 after tapping 109-23 briefly this morning. Heavy futures volume by the close (TYU3>3.6M) due to a surge in quarterly futures rolls from Sep to Dec ahead next Thursday's First Notice. Sep'23 Treasury options expiration also added to heavy volumes.
- Slow start to the week ahead -- culminates with the latest employment data for August next Friday.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 0.6723 High Aug 1
- RES 3: 0.6597 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6509 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6488 High Aug 24
- PRICE: 0.6406 @ 16:50 BST Aug 25
- SUP 1: 0.6365 Low Aug 17 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6285 Low Nov 4 2022
- SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
The AUDUSD trend remains bearish and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - Thursday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. Firm resistance is at the 20-day EMA at 0.6509. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6597. The pair has recently breached support at 0.6458, May 31 low and a bear trigger. This strengthens the downtrend and opens 0.6285 next, the Nov 4 2022 low. On the upside, clearance of the 20-day EMA would suggest scope for a stronger correction.
