EU ENERGY SECTOR: Harbour Energy Q4 Trading Update; Slight Negative
Jan-23 08:11
HBRLN Baa2/BBB-/BBB-
Mostly in-line with guidance but with a FCF miss on a negative WC flow and unplanned outage while production guidance is lower for next year.
- Proforma FY production 479kboepd (in line with 475-485kboepd guide).
- Reported FY unit costs of USD 16.5 from USD 16.4 in FY23 (vs. guidance of USD 16-17/boe).
- Reported FY total CapEx of USD 1.8bn (in line with guidance; reported not proforma).
- Reported FCF neutral (excl. acquisition costs) in FY24 (vs. guidance of USD 300mn) on a negative WC flow and an unplanned Q4 outage. Net debt of USD 4.7bn (flat to Sept).
- FY25 production guidance ranges from -6% to flat (proforma basis) with unit costs of USD 14, total CapEx of USD 2.4-2.6bn and FCF of USD ~1bn.
- For context on guidance, we didn’t get proforma FY24 figures for unit costs, CapEx or FCF though these had proforma guidance of USD 13-14, USD 2.7bn and USD 1.1bn.
- To maintain “disciplined capital allocation” in FY25; USD 455mn in dividends announced (in line with policy).
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GILTS: Opens within the Calls
Dec-24 08:09
- A slightly higher open for Gilt, was just down 2 ticks at 92.46 vs close, a small wide range of 16 ticks on the Open, but as expected very poor volumes as also seen in the Sonia Strip.
- In Terms of Technical, support is at 91.87, while resistance moves down to 92.92.
GILTS: Opening calls
Dec-24 07:57
Gilt Calls will be taken from Tnotes, with Europe closed, 92.40, would be 8 ticks down.
USD: The Dollar is King going into Year End
Dec-24 07:40
- The Dollar remains king, and the old saying of "Buy Dollar, Wear Diamonds" is suited as we head towards Year end.
- Only the Malaysian Ringgit, and the Hong Kong Dollar are up YTD, and even the Exotics are down.
- Within G10s, it is a painful Year for the Kiwi, as we stand going into the European session, down 10.59%, NOK 10.5% and the Yen is still down 10.21% YTD.
- Incredibly, although Cable is below 1.2600, it is only down 1.54% for the Year.
- For Technical in G10s, most Pairs/Crosses are some way short of their next respective Supports/Resistances, {r1} EURUSD would see next support at 1.0343 Low Dec 20.
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