FED: Hammack On Three Distinct Scenarios
May-20 16:58
Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (’26 voter) told Axios that the the White House tax bill or its deregulatory efforts complicates forecasts amidst “tremendous uncertainty”. She had said May 10 that there is a strong case for holding mon pol steady and that it will take time for hard data to show govt policy changes.
- “There are a number of other policies that are still yet to be implemented that could have offsetting effects" on trade policy.
- "We don't want to overreact to trade — that's certainly the topic of conversation right now — because there are other policies that are coming into play”.
- On the upcoming SEP projections to be submitted at the Jun 17-18 FOMC meeting: "I'm grateful that I have four weeks to work on coming up with a modal case, because right now I haven't really been operating with a base case […] I've been operating in a couple different scenarios." "To come up with a modal case that you have a lot of confidence in, I think at this particular moment is going to be really challenging,"
- She talks on three scenarios, which can be found in the full Axios piece, here.
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CARNEY ELECTION PLATFORM HAS CAD225B OF DEFICITS OVER FOUR YRS
Apr-19 13:51
- CARNEY ELECTION PLATFORM HAS CAD225B OF DEFICITS OVER FOUR YRS
- CARNEY SEES 2025-26 BUDGET DEFICIT OF CAD62.3B OR 2% OF GDP
- CARNEY PLANS TO REACH 2% NATO TARGET BEFORE 2030
- CARNEY SEES NEW CAD10B ANNUAL PLAN FOR GREEN TRANSITION BONDS
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Apr-18 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 25-Apr | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 29-Apr | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 29-Apr | 0800 | ES | HICP (p) / GDP |
| 29-Apr | 0900 | EU | M3 / Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 29-Apr | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Confidence Indices |
| 29-Apr | 1000 | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 30-Apr | 0630 | FR | GDP (p) / Consumer Spending |
| 30-Apr | 0700 | DE | Import/Export Prices / Retail Sales |
| 30-Apr | 0745 | FR | HICP (p) / PPI |
| 30-Apr | 0855 | DE | Unemployment |
| 30-Apr | 0900 | DE | GDP (p) / State level CPI |
| 30-Apr | 0900 | IT | GDP (p) |
| 30-Apr | 1000 | EU | GDP preliminary flash est. |
| 30-Apr | 1000 | IT | HICP (p) |
| 30-Apr | 1100 | IT | PPI |
| 30-Apr | 1300 | DE | HICP (p) |
JGBS: Twist-Steepener Holds Going Into W/E, BoJ Gov Ueda Reiterates Caution
Apr-18 05:16
JGB futures are stronger, +18 compared to settlement levels, sitting near the middle of the range after a choppy session.
- “Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterates his stance that the central bank will carefully monitor if its economic outlook will be realized, accounting for the effects of US tariff measures, without preconception. The BoJ will raise the benchmark rate if the outlook is realized, Ueda says in response to questions in parliament.” (per BBG)
- “Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co. plans to invest in Japan's super-long government bonds this fiscal year after their yields skyrocketed. The company aims to increase domestic government bond holdings by ¥30 billion, with gross purchases potentially reaching ¥300-400 billion.” (per BBG)
- Earlier today, Headline CPI for March showed +3.6% y/y versus +3.7% estimate. Core and Core-Core printed +3.2% y/y and +2.9% y/y, respectively, versus estimates of +3.2% and +2.9% and priors +3.0% and +2.6%.
- Cash US tsys are closed today for the Good Friday holiday.
- Cash JGBs have twist-steepened, pivoting at the 20-year, with yields 2bps lower to 5bps higher.
- Swap rates are 2bps lower to 2bps higher, with a steepening bias.
- On Monday, the local calendar will see Tokyo Condominiums for Sale data.
