BRAZIL: Haddad To Remain Focused On Fiscal Agenda, BCB’s Nilton David Speaks
May-21 11:11
- Finance Minister Haddad is said to have put his political ambitions on hold, according to a report on Bloomberg, and will now focus on a constructive agenda that will include promoting tax incentives for tech companies and continuing to ensure the fiscal rules are met. The pivot has come as Lula has indicated that he will run for re-election, according to people familiar with the matter.
- In a quiet session, USDBRL edged 0.3% higher yesterday, closing near 5.67, around the middle of its recent ~5.60-5.75 range. USDBRL maintains a bearish tone, with attention on 5.5933, the Apr 3 low and a key support. Firm resistance to watch is 5.7632, the May 7 high.
- Today, BCB monetary policy director Nilton David is due to speak at the third MacroLab seminar, organised by FGV in Sao Paulo at 2200BST/1700ET.
- No macro data are due, with the calendar for the rest of this week remaining relatively light. Next week will bring latest current account data and mid-month IPCA inflation figures.
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US TSY FUTURES: Extending Lows
Apr-21 11:11
- Futures extending lows again, sellers meet limited buy interest, low overall volumes volumes at Jun'25 10Y trades down to 110-30 (-7.5), total volume just over 151k. 10Y yield climbs to 4.3676% (+.0427).
- Initial Technical support below at 110-15/109-08 (Low Apr 15 / 11 and the bear trigger); Continued weakness would refocus attention on 109-08, the Apr 11 low. A break of this level would resume the downtrend.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Chicago Fed Goolsbee, Leading Index, Tsy Bills
Apr-21 11:05
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 21-Apr 0830 Chicago Fed Goolsbee interview on CNBC
- 21-Apr 1000 Leading Index (-0.3%, -0.5%)
- 21-Apr 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions
US TSYS: Curves Twist Steeper, Bonds Under Pressure
Apr-21 10:54
- US markets returning from Easter holiday to Treasury curves twisting steeper, bonds under pressure on lighter volumes as European markets remain closed for Easter Monday.
- Currently, Jun'25 2Y & 5Y contracts trade +1-2, 10Y -3.5 at 111-02, 30Y bond -20 at 113-30. 10Y yield +.0291 at 4.3540%.
- Wires continue to report Pres Trump's wishes to interfere with the independent Federal Reserve by sacking Fed Chairman Powell, not to mention ongoing tariff related headlines.
- Initial technical support for TYM5 below at 110-15/109-08 (Low Apr 15 / 11 and the bear trigger). Resistance at 111-17+ (High Apr 16). Volume in 10s just under 130k.
- Cross asset update: US$ falls to early Jan '24 levels, BBG $ index -9.6 at 1215.08; Gold climbs to new intra-day all-time high of 3397.75; stocks weaker SPX eminis -53.50 at 5259.25.
- Limited data today: Leading index at 1000ET, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee interview on CNBC at 0830ET. Tsy bill auctions at 1130ET: $76B 13W & $68B 26W bills.
