JGB TECHS: (H6) Rally Takes Hold
- RES 3: 140.08 - High Jun 13
- RES 2: 139.05 - High Aug 4
- RES 1: 137.30 - High Sep 8 and key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 131.98 @ 15:56 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 131.06/01 - Low Feb 9 / 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 2: 130.66 - Low Jan 19
- SUP 3: 130.22 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
JGBs were initially pressured on the back of the election results, helping push prices briefly through support at the 2.0% lower Bollinger Band. Prices soon bounced, and the rally firmed further on Tuesday. With Takaichi affirming that tax cuts would not be paid for with additional bond issuance, the ability of markets to rally off lows supports the view that a near-term bottom may be in. This keeps focus on any recovery to 132.20.
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JGB TECHS: (H6) Shallow Bounce
- RES 3: 140.08 - High Jun 13
- RES 2: 139.05 - High Aug 4
- RES 1: 137.30 - High Sep 8 and key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 132.13 @ 15:53 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 131.75 - Low Jan 9
- SUP 2: 131.64 - 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 3: 130.95 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Prices traded to new pullback and cycle lows this week on confirmation of early lower house elections. This affirms the firm downtrend that’s dominated prices since mid-September, and prices will need to challenge resistance before signaling any broader reversal. The Lower Bollinger Band at 131.64 is providing support for now, with 130.95 envelope support below.
US TSYS: Futures Open Slightly Higher
TYH6 is dealing at 112-16, +0-01 from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.
- Yesterday, Treasury futures extended highs late morning - not headline driven but more likely mirroring Bund bid into the London close. Currently, TYH6 trades 112-15 (+6.5) vs 112-18 high, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 112-31, the Dec 18 high. Curves flatter: 2s10s -2.060 at 62.198, 5s30s -0.7 at 107.495.
- On the flipside, a bear threat in Treasuries remains present and for now, short-term gains are considered corrective. Attention is on support at 111-29, the Dec 10 low and bear trigger. A break of it would confirm a continuation of the bear cycle. Note too that a head and shoulders reversal pattern on the daily chart also highlights a bearish threat. Scope is seen for a move towards 111-19 initially, a Fibonacci projection.
- Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on some advanced chips, including Nvidia H200 and AMD AI325X, but these won't apply to imports that support the build out of the US supply chain and that strengthen the domestic manufacturing for derivatives of semiconductors. Broader tariffs may be imposed in the future on the chip space in order to incentivize domestic manufacturing.
Bloomberg Finance LP
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (H6) Shallow Bounce
- RES 3: 95.982 - 76.4% retracement Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg
- RES 2: 95.960 - High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 1: 95.900 - High Oct 17
- PRICE: 95.285 @ 15:50 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 95.120 - Low Dec 10
- SUP 2: 95.087 - 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 3: 94.276 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures remain well toward the bottom of the recent range, having taken out all major support levels in the process. With 95.275 cleared, prices are pushing to new contract lows, opening vol-band support through 95.087 and into 94.276. Any recoveries need to break back above 95.900 to signal near-term bullish traction.
