BRENT TECHS: (H6) Monitoring Support

Statistics Norway expects Norges Bank to cut the policy rate once in each of 2026 and 2027, consistent with the central bank’s September MPR projections. We expect a downward revision to Norges Bank’s December MPR rate path on Thursday, which may tilt the 2026 balance in favour of two 25bp cuts. However, we think the implied probability of two cuts in 2026 will be only a little above 50%.

• Stats Norway writes that “given inflation that is still higher than the target, it will take time for interest rates to come down further”, and expects the policy rate to remain at 3.5% beyond 2027 – around the upper end of Norges Bank’s neutral range.
• CPI-ATE projections were unchanged relative to Stats Norway’s September projection round, with underlying inflation seen at 2.9% next year and 2.6% in 2027.
• Mainland GDP was revised up a tenth to 1.9% in 2026, but down by three tenths to 2.0% in 2027. Relative to September, revisions were negative across major GDP subcomponents.
• Full projections and write-up here

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4353.5 - High Dec 12                    
• PRICE: $4285.7 @ 07:21 GMT Dec 16 
• SUP 1: $4196.8/4078.9 - 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: $3998.1 - Low Nov 18 
• SUP 3: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger 
• SUP 4: $3800.00 Round number support

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact. The bear phase between Oct 20 - 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $4078.9. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.

• RES 4: $70.86 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 17 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.33 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $68.86 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $63.15/65.25 - 50-day EMA / High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $60.23 @ 07:06 GMT Dec 16 
• SUP 1: $59.93 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.92 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $58.11 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.22 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains present and this week’s bearish start to the week reinforces current conditions. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode condition. Sights are on key support and the bear trigger at $59.93, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle and open $58.92, the May 5 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is $65.25, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is $63.15, the 50-day EMA.