SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 106.945 High Dec 3 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 106.900 High Dec 5
- RES 2: 106.826 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 106.790 High Dec 17 / 18
- PRICE: 106.745 @ 06:10 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: 106.675/ 630 Low Dec 12 / 10 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.621 2.236 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing
- SUP 3: 106.600 2.382 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing
- SUP 4: 106.583 2.500 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing
A bear theme in Schatz futures remains intact following the recent impulsive sell-off and short-term gains are considered corrective. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 106.621 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 106.945, the Dec 3 high. A corrective bounce would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind.
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BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Cycle
- RES 4: 118.600 High Oct 24
- RES 3: 118.360 High Oct 28
- RES 2: 118.270 High Nov 5 118.360/600 High Oct 28 / 24
- RES 1: 118.114 50-day EMA.
- PRICE: 117.950 @ 06:06 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 117.800 Low Nov 17 / 18
- SUP 2: 117.710 Low Oct 6
- SUP 3: 117.630 Low Oct 1
- SUP 4: 117.470 Low Sep 15 and a key support
The short-term trend condition in Bobl futures remains bearish and a fresh cycle low this week reinforces current conditions. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 118.043, 61.8% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle. Note that 117.824, the 76.4% retracement, has been pierced. A continuation lower would open 117.630, the Oct 1 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 118.114, the 50-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
| Date | Time | Period | Event |
| 19-Nov | 0700 | Oct | Consumer Inflation Report / Producer Prices |
| 20-Nov | 1100 | Nov | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 20-Nov | 1830 | --- | BOE Dhingra Speech on Trade and Tariffs |
| 20-Nov | 2100 | --- | BOE Mann at IMF Statistical Forum |
| 21-Nov | 0001 | Nov | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 21-Nov | 0700 | Oct | Public Sector Finances / Retail Sales |
| 21-Nov | 0930 | Nov | S&P Manuf / Serv / Comp PMIs (p) |
| 21-Nov | 1540 | --- | BOE Pill in Panel at Swiss National Bank |
| 25-Nov | 1100 | Nov | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 26-Nov | 1230 | --- | Chancellor Reeves to deliver UK Budget |
| 26-Nov | 1530 | --- | DMO to publish consultation agenda |
| 27-Nov | 1600 | --- | BOE Greene Speech at Goodbody Conference |
| 01-Dec | 0930 | Nov/Oct | S&P Manuf PMI (f) / BOE Lending to Individuals / M4 |
| 01-Dec | 1530 | --- | DMO to hold FQ4 consultations with investors / GEMMs |
| 02-Dec | 0001 | Nov | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 02-Dec | 0700 | H2 | BOE Financial Stability Report |
| 03-Dec | 0930 | Nov | S&P Services / Composite PMI (f) |
| 04-Dec | 0930 | Nov | S&P Construction PMI / BOE Decision Maker Panel data |
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 19-Nov | 0900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 19-Nov | 1000 | EU | EZ HICP Final |
| 20-Nov | 0700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Nov | 1000 | EU | EZ Construction Output |
| 20-Nov | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 21-Nov | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 21-Nov | 0800 | EU | ECB de Guindos Remarks/Q&A at Foro Gran Via |
| 21-Nov | 0815 | FR | S&P Global Manuf / Services PMI (p) |
| 21-Nov | 0830 | DE | S&P Global Manuf / Services PMI (p) |
| 21-Nov | 0830 | EU | ECB Lagarde Speech at European Banking Congress |
| 21-Nov | 0900 | EU | S&P Global Manuf / Serv / Comp PMI (p) |
| 21-Nov | 1000 | EU | Negotiated Wage Growth |
| 21-Nov | 1130 | EU | ECB de Guindos Remarks/Q&A at Deusto Business School |
| 22-Nov | 0800 | EU | ECB Lagarde in Roundtable at Austrian National Bank |
| 22-Nov | 1100 | EU | ECB Lagarde Keynote on Fiscal and MonPol |
