US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Bull Cycle Intact For Now
Dec-19 11:42
- RES 4: 113-22+ High Nov 25 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 113-09 76.4% retracement of the Nov 25 - Dec 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 113-07 High Dec 3
- RES 1: 113-00+ 61.8% retracement of the Nov 25 - Dec 10 bear leg
- PRICE: 112-17 @ 11:31 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: 112-06/111-29 Low Dec 16 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 111-19 1.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 3: 111-11 1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 111-00 Round number support
The spike higher in Treasuries Thursday highlights a stronger short-term bullish condition and for now signals scope for a continued retracement of the recent Nov 25 - Dec 10 bear leg. A resumption of gains would open 113-00+, a Fibonacci retracement. Price has pulled back from yesterday’s high, a deeper pullback would cancel a bull theme and instead refocus on attention on 111-29, the Dec 10 low and a key short-term support.
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OPTIONS: Expiries for Nov19 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Nov-19 11:40
- EUR/USD: $1.1600(E1.3bln), $1.1700(E1.1bln), $1.1800(E1.6bln)
- USD/JPY: Y153.00($1.3bln), Y153.50($781mln), Y155.50($527mln)
- GBP/USD: $1.3100(Gbp530mln)
STIR: Fed Rates Hold Broad 50/50 Call On Dec Cut, FOMC Minutes Headline
Nov-19 11:40
- Fed Funds implied rates are little changed on the day, holding a dovish tilt yesterday on risk-off grounds but with next month’s meeting still seen as slightly more likely to pause than cut in a close call ahead of tomorrow's September NFP report.
- The FOMC Minutes from the Oct 28-29 meeting headline a lighter docket (before Nvidia earnings after the close) with strongly differing views on the committee, but there’s only so much impact it can have as it's been clear since then that the hawks have become more vocal and arguably more entrenched.
- MNI Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Minutes_Preview_Nov2025_2e5fc3ae40.pdf
- Cumulative cuts from 3.87% effective: 11bp Dec, 22bp Jan, 32.5bp Mar, 40.5bp Apr and 56bp Jun.
- SOFR futures are only up to 1 tick higher on the day, with the terminal yield of 3.07% (H7) only just keeping to the 3.065-3.16% range for closes seen in recent weeks.
- Other Fedpseak is unlikely to offer anything new on mon pol although Miran could be of note on banking: Gov. Miran on bank regulation (1000ET, text + Q&A), Richmond Fed’s Barkin repeats yesterday’s speech on the economic outlook (1245ET) and NY Fed’s Williams gives welcoming remarks (1400ET).
EQUITIES: Option Expiries
Nov-19 11:37
Equity Option expiry for Friday in Notional Term:
US:
- SPX: $1.47T vs $1.36T (Monday).
- NDX; $86.64bn vs $77.92bn.
- Amazon: $18.70bn vs $16.93bn.
- Apple: $19.19bn vs $16.97bn.
- NVIDIA: $47.03bn (new update).
EU:
- SX5E: €139.90bn vs €138.74bn.
- SX7E: €4.31bn vs €4.43bn.
- Dax: €14.71bn vs €14.05bn.
- FTSE: £14.50bn vs £14.30bn.
