BRENT TECHS: (H6) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 121.33 High Oct 21 and a key resistance area 
• RES 3: 121.37 High Nov 13 
• RES 2: 121.24 High Nov 26 
• RES 1: 120.17/77 Low Nov 20 / High Dec 3   
• PRICE: 119.43 @ Close Dec 8
• SUP 1: 119.42 Intraday low           
• SUP 2: 119.30 1.618 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing  
• SUP 3: 119.12 1.764 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 118.84 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing

BTP futures have traded through an important support at 120.17, the Nov 20 low. This highlights the fact that a bearish phase remains in play for now, signalling scope for a deeper short-term retracement. The impulsive sell-off yesterday opens 119.30 next, a Fibonacci projection. The contract is oversold, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is 120.17, the Nov 20 low.

• RES 4: 92.55 High Nov 11 
• RES 3: 92.31 High Nov 12          
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.16/93 High Dec 8 / High Nov 27      
• PRICE: 90.70 @ Close Dec 8
• SUP 1: 90.62/90.53 Low Dec 8 / Low Nov 25 & 26       
• SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger     

The extension lower in Gilt futures yesterday exposes the next important support at 90.53, the Nov 25 and 26 low. A breach of this level would undermine a recent bull theme and instead signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low and a bear trigger. For bulls, a resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high. Initial resistance to watch is 91.93, the Nov 27 high.

BRC Retail Sales saw a third consecutive slowdown in November, posting a 1.4% Y/Y increase in value terms (vs 1.6% October). This was the weakest reading since May and, once again, the positive growth rate was driven almost entirely by food inflation (with non-food close to flat in volume terms).

• Note that this reporting period included Black Friday and the following Saturday (but not the Sunday of that weekend or Cyber Monday). Last year the survey period ended the week prior to Black Friday so didn't include any of this major weekend. Given that this data is not adjusted, sales would expect to be boosted this year by including this busy period.
• The release also notes that pre-Budget caution among consumers meant that, despite Black Friday being included in the reporting period, retail sales were not boosted as much as expected. There is always value in looking at November and December sales combined, and retailers will have been hoping that when Budget uncertainty was removed that sales will have picked up in December to compensate for the soft November.
• Food sales also saw a third consecutive slowdown at 3.0% Y/Y (vs 3.5% Oct), the lowest since March. The BRC's Shop Price Monitor for November showed a decline in food price inflation to 3.0% Y/Y (vs 3.7% Oct), pointing again to the yearly increase in food sales being almost entirely driven by inflation.
• However, we note that the BRC shop price index and official ONS data both show a slowdown in food price inflation recently, so it's hard to know the full extent of the slowdown in volume terms.
• Non-food sales growth was unchanged from October, and almost flat at 0.1% Y/Y, with another notable downward contribution from the "Other non-food" category. "While the likes of computing and household appliances outperformed Black Friday week last year, total non-food sales growth across all categories was minimal overall", notes the press release.
• The ONS's retail sales volume index will see November data released on 19 December, after a sharp -1.1% M/M pullback in October (though this had followed four consecutive rises). Today's BRC release covers the same 4 weeks as the ONS report (from 2 - 29 November 2025).