COPPER TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points North
Feb-12 14:49
- RES 4: $489.60 - High May 28
- RES 3: $480.00 - High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $471.50 - Intraday high
- RES 1: $469.34/50 - 6.0% 10-dma envelope / High Oct 2 ‘24
- PRICE: $462.60 @ 14:38 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: $447.00 - High Jan 17
- SUP 2: $434.80 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $418.35 - Low Feb 3 and key support
- SUP 4: $400.50 - Low Jan 2 and a bear trigger
Copper futures remain in a bull cycle and the most recent gains have highlighted an acceleration of the uptrend and this reinforces current conditions. The contract has cleared 452.85, the Nov 5 high and a key hurdle. Price is also through 461.24, 76.4% of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Jan 2 bear leg. Sights are on 480.00, the Sep 30 high and bull trigger. Key support is at $418.35, the Feb 3 low.
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BOE APF SALES RESULTS: GBP750mln of short-dated gilts with bid-to-cover of 2.24x
Jan-13 14:48
Previous bid-to-cover ratios: most recent first: 2.53x, 3.22x, 1.84x, 1.64x.
Note previous operations had GBP800mln size.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Analysts See Close Call Between 0.2/0.3% M/M For Core CPI
Jan-13 14:44
- Wednesday’s US CPI report headlines the weekly calendar, with Bloomberg consensus currently looking for a 0.2% M/M print for core CPI in what’s a close call with a 0.3% M/M.
- Indeed, our initial review of 13 unrounded analyst estimates sees these generally more detailed projections centered around 0.25% M/M for core CPI in December.
- That would be a moderation from the 0.31% M/M in November and four months oscillating between 0.28-0.31% M/M since August.
- Initial core PCE estimates meanwhile point to a softer outright print, averaging 0.21% M/M (initial range of 0.19-0.27), but directionally it's different as it would be an acceleration after a soft 0.115% M/M in Nov. Prior to that soft spot, core PCE had averaged 0.26% M/M in Sep-Oct.
- Tomorrow’s PPI report will no doubt impact core PCE tracking before a greater convergence in analyst estimates after CPI on Wednesday.
- There's a greater difference between unrounded estimates and the broader median when it comes to headline CPI tracking, however. Unrounded analyst estimates average 0.39% M/M, and whilst 20 of 48 Bloomberg estimates look for a 0.4% increase, 24 look for 0.3% and 4 look for just 0.2%, leaving an overall average of 0.33% M/M.
STIR: Around 45bp Of BoE Cuts Still Priced Through Year-End
Jan-13 14:37
Stabilisation away from session lows also evident in GBP STIRs as the day progresses, leaving 44bp of cuts priced through year-end and SONIA futures little changed to -4.5 on the day.
- UK headline flow limited since PM Starmer’s comments that underscored the government’s desire to stick to the fiscal rules and generate growth, while underscoring its willingness to make difficult spending decisions.
- We will hear from BoE’s Breeden again on Tuesday, but as is the case with most of her speeches, there is unlikely to be much on monpol.
- More focus will be placed on comments from dovish dissenter Taylor later in the week, as well as Wednesday’s CPI data.
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