US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed
Jan-29 11:10
- RES 4: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 110-19 76.4% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg.
- RES 2: 109-31 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 109-12 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 109-05+ @ 10:40 GMT Jan 29
- SUP 1: 108-00/107-06 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
A bullish short-term cycle in Treasury futures highlights a corrective phase and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Attention is on 109-12, the 50-day EMA - a level tested on Monday. A clear break of this EMA would strengthen a bullish theme and open 109-31, the Dec 18 high. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish. The bear trigger is 107-06, the Jan 13 low. Initial support has been defined at 108-00, the Jan 16 low.
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STIR: SOFR FIX - 30/12/2024
Dec-30 11:01
| SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME | ||
| 1M | 4.33704 | -0.01997 |
| 3M | 4.31044 | -0.01834 |
| 6M | 4.26230 | -0.02263 |
| 12M | 4.20684 | -0.03247 |
CROSS ASSET: Bunds Within Range of Lows, Higher Spanish CPI Leaves Little Mark
Dec-30 10:31
- Spanish inflation data came in ahead of expectations, with the headline driven by fuel prices as well as leisure. The release added some pretty to Bund prices, which shed ~20 ticks on release, but swiftly recovered the losses. Nonetheless, Bund futures remain well within range of cycle lows and the bear trigger at 132.71 - printed at the resumption of trade following the weekend.
- Currency markets trade with little conviction. The USD is marginally weaker as AUD, NZD and CAD recover off recent pullback lows, giving trade a consolidatory theme after fierce price action in the weeks leading up to Christmas.
- Stock futures are lower, pointing to another lower open on Wall Street - building on the weakness seen into the Friday close.
- Significant newsflow has been few and far between, with US domestic politics focusing on the internal Republican debate over H-1B visas and the passing of President Carter. We expect US bond and equity markets are to be closed across the Day of Mourning, set for January 9th.
- Focus for the duration of Monday trade will be on the MNI Chicago PMI at 1445GMT, expected to tick up to 43.0 from 40.2 previously. We anticipate volumes and broader liquidity to remain very light over the coming two sessions, particularly with tomorrow's European market closures and early closes elsewhere. EUR futures are posting cumulative volumes ~10% below an already subdued average for this time of day.
STIR: EURIBOR FIX - 30/12/24
Dec-30 10:06
| Tenor | Rate | Change |
| One-week | 2.912 | -0.023 |
| One-month | 2.867 | +0.004 |
| Three-month | 2.678 | -0.005 |
| Six-month | 2.562 | -0.015 |
| One-year | 2.454 | -0.011 |
