US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Maintains A Softer Tone
- RES 4: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 110-19 76.4% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 110-14 High Dec 14
- RES 1: 109-08+/110-00 50-day EMA / High Feb 7 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 108-14+ @ 11:34 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 108-00 Low Jan 16
- SUP 2: 107-06 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
Treasury futures remain soft. The contract traded sharply lower on Wednesday’s CPI print, resulting in a break of 108-20+, the Feb 4 low. The breach highlights a stronger reversal and most likely the end of the corrective cycle between Jan 13 - Feb 7. A continuation lower would open 108-00, the Jan 16 low, and expose 107-06, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 110-00, Feb 7 high.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Oil Remains In Play
- On the commodity front, recent gains in Gold appear corrective - for now. However, the yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of last week’s gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. A stronger recovery would open $2726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. Initial support is at $2642.9, the 50-day EMA.
- In the oil space, the trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and the contract traded higher again, Monday. The stronger reversal to the upside has resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this hurdle strengthens a bull theme and opens $79.59, the Jul 5 ‘24 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose the 20-day EMA, at $72.69. This average is seen as a key short-term support.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 109-24+ 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 108-21+/109-06 20-day EMA / High Dec 31
- PRICE: 107-10+ @ 11:22 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 107-06 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Monday’s bearish start to the week, has once again, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 107-04 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 108-21+, the 20-day EMA.
