CEE: GS on CEE FX
- With a Euro Area recession in H2 now GS base case, CE3 currencies are likely to remain under pressure as they feature a larger exposure to a fall in European demand relative to other EM currencies and also a direct exposure to the gas supply disruptions (in particular Hungary).
- And, with the Euro also struggling for the same reasons, GS suggests that CE3 could see the largest downside in EM FX if EUR/USD does break sustainably below parity.
- As such, FX stability depends more than ever on the support from all the tools in the policy cupboard and, for this reason, GS continues to expect CZK to outperform its regional peers given the Czech National Bank's ample reserves and historical institutional credibility.
- In particular, this week’s CNB rate decision will be important to watch to better understand the reaction function of the new board.
- GS economists are looking for a 25bp hike against a split consensus (between 25bp and on hold), though this is a low conviction view.
- Still, in the event of a dovish surprise, GS thinks the CNB’s ability to intervene in the FX market should cushion the blow for the Koruna.
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Historical bullets
JGB TECHS: (U2) Solid Bounce Into the Close
- RES 3: 151.13 - High Mar 3
- RES 2: 150.44 - High Mar 14
- RES 1: 150.14 - High Apr 1 and key resistance
- PRICE: 149.30 @ 16:43 BST Jul 1
- SUP 1: 147.15 - Low Jun 14
- SUP 2: 147.08 - 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 3: 146.82 - Low Jul 14 2015
JGBs extended the near-term corrective bounce into the Friday close, persisting with the recovery off last week’s lows. The broader outlook, however, remains negative after JGB futures showed below the 1.0% 10-dma envelope for the first time since the depths of the COVID-19 crisis, touching 147.15 on the pull lower. The next downside level crosses at 147.08, the 3.0% lower Bollinger Band ahead of 146.82 - the low from July 14th 2015.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Price Structure
- RES 4: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
- RES 2: 1.3079 High May 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3017 High Jun 23
- PRICE: 1.2918 @ 16:59 BST Jul 1
- SUP 1: 1.2819/2807 Low Jun 28 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2732 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - 17 rally
- SUP 3: 1.2681 Low Jun 10
- SUP 4: 1.2518 Low Jun 8 and key support
USDCAD outlook remains bullish and the pair is trading above this week’s low. The recent corrective cycle appears to have stalled at Tuesday’s low of 1.2819. Looking at Japanese candle patterns, Tuesday is a doji pattern and this points to a short-term bullish reversal. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on resistance at 1.3079 the Jun 17 and a bull trigger. Firm support lies at 1.2807, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Clears Key Support
- RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
- RES 3: 0.7138 High Jun 10
- RES 2: 0.7069 High Jun 16 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.6979 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6794 @ 16:56 BST Jul 1
- SUP 1: 0.6764 Low Jul 1
- SUP 2: 0.6759, 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘ 21 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 0.6685 High Mar 9 2020
- SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
AUDUSD is softer and the pair has traded below its key short-term support at 0.6829, the May 12 low. The break of this support confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started in February 2021 and maintains a broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The move lower signals scope for weakness towards 0.6759, the 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘ 21 bull cycle.
