US OUTLOOK/OPINION: GS Below Consensus For CPI, Helped By Lower Airfares

• RES 3: 140.08 High Jun 13  
• RES 2: 139.05 High Aug 4 
• RES 1: 137.30 - High Sep 8 asnd key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 135.97 @ 19:08 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 135.76 - Low Sep 22 
• SUP 2: 135.39 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 4 - Sep 2 - Sep 8 price swing
• SUP 3: 134.69 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 4 - Sep 2 - Sep 8 price swing  

A bear threat in JGB futures remains present and the contract has pulled back from its recent highs. The latest sell-off has also resulted in a break of support at 136.19, the Sep 4 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 135.39 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.30, the Sep 8 high. 

• RES 4: 0.6793 1.500 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 1: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17
• PRICE: 0.6599 @ 19:25 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 0.6575/6547 Low Sep 22 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6527 61.8% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23

The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and the current pullback is considered corrective - for now. The recent rally plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The climb opens the 0.6726 next, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6547, the 50-day EMA.

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 174.50 High Sep 19 
• PRICE: 174.24 @ 19:22 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 173.01/171.83 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1   

The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and last Thursday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The cross breached resistance at 173.97, the Jul 28 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.01, the 20-day EMA.