EU CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Groupe SEB: 2Q results
Jul-23 16:14
(SKFP: unrated)
new 30s that have rallied -50bps since issuance last month may have to end their un-checked optimism tomorrow morning.
- 1H sales €3.75b, +0.6% LFL
- higher margin professional was -9.6%, consumer +2.2%
- 2Q saw stabilisation with +1.9% growth (professional +4%). It says ex. Professional rolling over large deal in China it would have been +10% growth.
- by region, 1H: EMEA +3.5% (accelerating in Q2 within western Europe), Asia/China +3.9% (stable through half) and Americas -5.5% (NA decelerated, 2Q -11.5%)
- Reminder co is 35% Western Europe, 26% China, 16% other EMEA and 11% NA.
- adj. EBIT halved to €119m, leaving it on a 3.2% margin (-330bps). Says near half of the fall (~€40m) was on lower professional revenues, rest from US weakness/tariffs and FX.
- Seasonal WC swing (-€150m), alongside elevated capex (-€160m) took FCF to neg/-€213m. Alongside €207m in dividends, €106m in acquisitions and €190m fine by French regulator, net debt rose by €750m to €2.7b pushing leverage to 2.9x (from 2.3x last year). Liquidity of €670m.
- Outlook for FY sales revised down from +5% to +2-4% within which it expects professional to hold onto growth that it started in 2H.
- EBIT guidance now €700-750m (-6.5% to -12.7% y/y) despite margin accretive benefit of returning growth in professional.
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US STOCKS: Midday Equities Roundup: Still Well Off Early Overnight Lows
Jun-23 16:05
- Stocks maintain mildly higher levels ahead midday Monday - well off early overnight lows as Iran, so far, fails to respond materially to the US bombing of three of it's nuclear facilities over the weekend. (Update: Qatar reportedly has closed their airspace recently, with speculation of Iranian retaliation on US bases there making the rounds).
- Additional support came from dovish comments from Fed Vice Chair Bowman this morning (declared tentative support for a rate cut in July if inflation remains subdued).
- Currently, the DJIA up 2.61 points (0.01%) at 42218.26, S&P E-Minis up 13.5 points (0.22%) at 6031.75, Nasdaq up 58.5 points (0.3%) at 19509.04.
- Consumer Discretionary and Utility sectors led gainers in the first half, a mix of stocks supporting the former included Tesla +10.01%, DoorDash +3.63%, Tractor Supply +1.96% and Lennar +1.88%.
- Gas and multi-energy providers buoyed the Utility sector: Dominion Energy +2.27%, Constellation Energy +2.24%, NiSource +1.99% and Atmos Energy +1.93%.
- Conversely, Health Care and Financial sector shares underperformed in the first half, pharmaceuticals and services providers weighed on Health Care: Gilead Sciences -2.31%, Bio-Techne Corp -1.72%, Viatris -1.47% and Centene Corp -1.43%.
- Meanwhile, Financial sector shres weighed by banks and services: Bank of New York Mellon -2.87%, Apollo Global Management -2.13%, KKR & Co -1.83% and Global Payments -1.28%.
ITALY T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer this week
Jun-23 15:58
MEF has announced it will be looking to sell the following at its auction this Thursday, June 26:
- E1.5bln of the 3-month Oct 14, 2025 BOT
- E1.5bln of the 5-month Nov 28, 2025 BOT
SECURITY: Speculation Increases Of Iranian Strike On US Base In Qatar
Jun-23 15:49
Following an earlier report from Amwaj Media, there is increasing speculation from analysts and journalists that an Iranian strike could target US military assets in Qatar. SEE: SECURITY: Iranian Retaliation 'Most Probably' Take Place In Coming Hours - Amwaj
- Reuters notes: “Qatar said it has shut down airspace temporarily as part of measures taken amid developments in the region, a statement by the Qatari foreign ministry said on X... The shutdown of Qatari airspace comes as Iran repeated earlier threats to retaliate against the United States after strikes on its nuclear sites.”
- The BBC noted earlier: "The US embassy in Qatar suggested in a notice online that Americans do so "out of an abundance of caution". The UK government said it was issuing its warning, external in response to the US alert."
- Ian Bremmer at Eurasia Group noted on X that the US base in Qatar "makes sense" as a target for Iranian strikes, "especially if they’re giving the Americans advance warning... " Providing a “spectacular” response with "less risk of further escalation".
- Iran's calculus is likely that a symbolic strike against a largely depopulated US military installation could satisfy domestic calls for retaliation without risking deeper US involvement.
- As Amwaj noted: “Following the US attack on Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz, top Iranian officials indicated that the door to diplomacy had been shut altogether. However, that may change if Iran is allowed to save face through an attack on largely evacuated US military installations.”
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