FOREX: Greenback Retraces Small Part of Thurs Weakness
May-30 09:27
- The greenback is retracing a small part of the acute weakness posted on Thursday, dragging EUR/USD off the overnight high of 1.1390. Newsflow and headlines have been few and far between, with the temporary reinstatement of Trump's tariff regime containing uncertainty through the appeals process and putting markets on a steadier footing into the final session of the week.
- JPY is firmer against all others. USD/JPY has traded either side of the Y144.00 handle, with markets conscious of the printing of a shooting star candle on the daily chart Thursday. This could signal a bearish short-term reversal for the pair, highlighting the Y142.12 level as key on the downside. A break below here would resume the bear trend posted off the May high, and the March/January highs further out.
- The EUR is more mixed. Having outperformed on tariff uncertainty yesterday (most notably against GBP), the single currency has faded slightly, but the case for EUR as a haven currency through trade volatility remains in place. Equity futures in the US are modestly lower, but well within range of the Thursday close, leaving today's run of data as the key input.
- The German national CPI print is up next, with MNI projecting 2.0-2.1% for the Y/Y rate after this morning's mixed regional inflation prints. Canadian Q1 GDP is also due, seen slowing to 1.7% from 2.6% prior, while US PCE price index data, the final University of Michigan print and the MNI Chicago PMI are set for release.
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FOREX: USD/JPY Struggles on Approach to Recovery High Ahead of GDP
Apr-30 09:26
- JPY is weaker against all others early Wednesday, however USD/JPY is yet to make any meaningful test on the Friday recovery high at 144.03. With tariff limbo still in place, and no trade negotiations to speak of between the US and China, G10 currencies are awaiting the next macro cue or headline to trade with any real conviction. That said, EUR/GBP continues its losing streak, with the cross hitting a new lower low of 0.8482 in overnight trade.
- Moves follow the cross trading through a major support area we flagged last week at 0.8520-31 - marking both the early April pullback low as well as the 50% retracement of the tariff-inspired upleg off 0.8323.
- Meanwhile, Australian CPI for Q1 came in toward the upper-end of expectations, helping AUD/USD recover well into the European morning. Spot faltered on the approach toward yesterday's 0.6450 highs, however, meaning the pair has traded either side of the 0.64 handle for eight consecutive sessions. The 200-dma defines the first topside level, at 0.6460.
- US data picks up Wednesday, with MNI Chicago PMI for April seen moderating further to 45.9 from 47.6 previously. Advance GDP, Personal income, spending and the latest PCE stats for March are also due. Central bank speak sees BoE's Lombardelli, ECB's Villeroy & Makhlouf as well as the BoC minutes. The Fed remain inside their pre-decision media blackout period.
GILT AUCTION RESULTS: Decent 4.375% Mar-28 auction
Apr-30 09:13
Decent 4.375% Mar-28 auction: 3.48x bid-to-cover ratio for the GBP4.5bln issued. That’s the highest bid-to-cover for this Gilt since the November 2024 launch. The auction size was also larger than the previous issues (which ranged between GBP4-4.25bln).
- The 0.2bp tail was the joint tightest on record for this line, alongside the January re-opening (0.4bp tail in March, 0.5bp in Feb).
- Lowest accepted price of 101.438 above the 101.4305 pre-auction mid-price. The secondary market price has moved up to 101.467 following the publication of the results.
AUSTRIA AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
Apr-30 09:10
Austria has announced it will be looking to sell a combined E1.75bln of the following at its auction next Tuesday, May 6:
- the 2.95% Feb-35 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3HU25)
- the 3.15% Jun-44 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A0VRQ6)
