FOREX: Greenback Relief Rally Extends Following Strong US Data

• Fed Funds implied rates are marginally softer on the day for meetings out to Mar 2026 after a 1bp decline since the NY crossover.
• US housing data was mixed (strong housing starts but the more underlying building permits data were weak) and there was some mild spillover from a dovish reaction to CAD CPI.
• Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 21.5bp Sep, 34.5bp Oct, 54.5bp Dec, 65bp Jan and 77.5bp Mar.
• The SOFR implied terminal yield of 3.095% (SFRH7) continues to hold particularly narrow ranges so far this week. It more broadly holds the +/-5bp of 125bp of cuts from current levels range seen since the Aug 1 payrolls report.
• Fed VC Supervision Bowman (permanent voter, dove) on Bloomberg TV didn’t have an impact on near-term rates earlier, focusing on banking supervision with further comments to come on that front at a Blockchain Symposium at 1410ET (text only).
• Tomorrow sees the FOMC minutes before Powell's Jackson Hole address on Friday. However, when it comes to Sept cut prospects, the August payrolls and CPI releases plus QCEW details (for preliminary payroll benchmark revision estimates) are all still to come before the next FOMC decision on Sep 17.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt is shortly due to brief reporters at the White House. LIVESTREAM According to his official schedule, President Donald Trump is shortly due to sign the "Maintaining American Superiority by Improving Export Control Transparency Act."

• According to the bill text, the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) will be required to "annually report to Congress on export control licensing."
• The legislation notes: "Under current law, BIS administers and enforces controls on the export of dual-use goods (e.g., items with both civilian and military uses) and certain military parts and components... Under this bill, BIS must annually report to Congress on license applications, enforcement actions, and other requests for authorization for the export, reexport, release, and in-country transfer of items subject to the EAR to covered entities."

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24
• RES 1: 1.1730 High Aug 13
• PRICE: 1.1670 @ 15:54 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 1.1586 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1373 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30 

EURUSD continues to trade within range of the latest highs and the short-term bullish outlook is intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. A continuation higher would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Support to watch lies at 1.1586, the 50-day EMA. Major support rests at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low.