USD: Greenback Firms amid Climbing US Yields

May-16 14:57
  • With treasuries under pressure in recent trade, and two-year yields rising to the best levels of the session, the greenback is trading on a much firmer footing. The dollar index has risen back above 101, allowing USDJPY to extend its intra-day bounce to well over 100 pips.
  • In sympathy, EURUSD slips through both Thursday and Wednesday lowest levels, currently hovering around the 1.1160 mark. Note that a key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1094, remains intact, and bullish conditions prevail for the pair.
  • The Swedish krona is the weakest in G10, falling 0.65% against the dollar. As noted, we haven't seen an obvious driver of today's SEK weakness against the broader G10 basket, although the dip lower for European equity futures may be weighing at the margin. Riksbank Governor Thedeen reaffirmed his cautious stance on current monetary policy in comments this morning.
  • Also underperforming on the session is GBP, currently down 0.35% on the session, although support for cable remains much further out at 1.3140, the May 12 low.

Historical bullets

BOC SAYS PREMATURE TO QUESTION USD AS RESERVE CURRENCY

Apr-16 14:53
  • BOC SAYS PREMATURE TO QUESTION USD AS RESERVE CURRENCY

OPTIONS: Expiries for Apr17 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

Apr-16 14:51
  • EUR/USD: $1.1200(E605mln), $1.1215-25(E1.3bln), $1.1250(E849mln), $1.1350-60(E919mln)
  • USD/JPY: Y142.80-00($1.1bln), Y145.00($1.4bln)
  • USD/CAD: C$1.4000($1.4bln)
  • AUD/USD: $0.6390-00(A$921mln)
  • USD/CAD: C$1.3950($1.0bln), C$1.4000($2.0bln)

STIR: SOFR Option Update

Apr-16 14:45

Pick-up in downside put structures this morning as underlying futures see-saw off earlier highs. Curves steeper (2s10s +4.486 at 52.876) with the short end still outperforming. Projected rate hike pricing, however, has cooled vs. morning levels (*) as follows: May'25 at -4bp (-4.7bp), Jun'25 at -20.5bp (-21.2bp), Jul'25 at -39.6bp (-40.1bp), Sep'25 -57.6bp (-58.9bp).

  • +3,100 SFRU5 95.62/95.68/95.75/95.87 put condors, 2.25
  • +3,000 SFRU5 95.31/95.68 2x1 put spds, 0.25 net
  • -10,000 SFRU5 96.50/97.00 call spds vs. 95.25/95.75 put spds and +5,000 95.25/95.81 put spds, 8.0