FOREX: Greenback Edges Lower as China Dismisses Talks Progress
Apr-24 09:11
- Risk sentiment is trading on a softer footing Thursday amid headlines from China dismissing any progress on trade talks with the US. The messaging goes against the most recent optimism surrounding potential de-escalation of the tariff war, and have placed the US dollar under pressure through the European morning. Greenback losses have been broad based in the G10 space, with the dollar only higher against CNH.
- These dynamics have boosted EURUSD by 0.55% with 1.13 providing solid support so far and the move down from Monday’s cycle high considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position which continues to signal a continued dominant uptrend. Most recent comments from ECB’s Rehn highlighting “there are few good arguments” to pause rate cuts lean dovish but have had little effect on the Euro. 1.1573/1.1181 remain the short-term technical parameters of note.
- Despite the upticks for both AUDUSD (+0.35%) and NZDUSD (+0.56%), the pairs remain notably below the 0.6400 and 0.6000 marks respectively. For AUDUSD specifically, the inability to consolidate gains above key resistance at 0.6409 is significant, and evident of the how fragile the pair remains to the broader risk backdrop.
- USDCHF highs of 0.8311 overnight fell around 20 pips shy of the prior breakdown point at 0.8333, the 2023 low. With bearish conditions prevailing, spot has reverted back towards 0.8260. We noted yesterday that Danske have updated their 12-month forecast for USDCHF to 0.7500. It is worth noting that EURCHF has edged back above 0.9400 as the cross edges further away from key medium-term support in the low 0.92s.
- US jobless claims, durable goods and existing home sales data highlight the economic calendar today. ECB’s Nagel will speak at 1300BST, and ECB’s Lane participates in a panel. Fed’s Kashkari is also scheduled.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FOREX: AUD Off Lows as Budget Looks to Lower Taxes
Mar-25 09:11
- Currency markets are mixed early Tuesday, with a small part of the recent JPY dip partially reversing and the USD Index broadly unchanged. This keeps tariff risk front and centre, as markets continue to look to gauge the extent to which the White House could narrow the scope of 'Liberation Day' tariffs next week.
- Scandi currencies remain firm and among the best performers YTD, with USD/SEK still well within reach of the 10.00 handle as European equities continue to gather poise and Germany's DAX builds a base to target the yearly highs.
- AUD recovered off early European lows, having underperformed alongside NZD for much of the session. The pre-election budget unveiled by the Labor government disclosed an income tax cut in both the next two fiscal years, and a minimally wider budget deficit. AUD/USD remains anchored to the 50-dma in the short-term, but AUD/NZD continues its recovery off lows: 1.1011 is the next major upside level.
- US new home sales and March consumer confidence data are the calendar highlights, with appearances from Fed's Kugler & Williams, ECB's Holzmann, Vujcic & Nagel.
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Mar-25 09:09
Of note:
EURUSD 1.89bn at 1.0800 (thu).
EURUSD 2.21bn at 1.0800 (fri).
USDJPY 1.2bn at 151.00 (fri).
USDCNY ~1bn at 7.2800 (mon).
- EURUSD: 1.0750 (400mln), 1.0850 (832mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6265 (470mln), 0.6300 (429mln).
- NZDUSD: 0.5740 (283mln).
- USDCNY: 7.3000 (418mln).
MNI: GERMANY MAR IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX 86.7
Mar-25 09:00
- MNI: GERMANY MAR IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX 86.7
