HYBRIDS: Grand City (GYCGR): Hybrid Clean-Up

• Fed Funds implied rates are unchanged overnight for near-term meetings but up to 1.5bp higher for meetings in 2H26 despite crude oil futures slipping another 1%.
• It comes ahead of an important NFP release, with two months of payrolls data and a single month of unemployment data, with retail sales for October landing simultaneously and expected to show a generally solid start to Q4.
• MNI Payrolls Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Nov2025_Preview_postshutdown_392dffc2d3.pdf
• There is currently no Fedspeak scheduled today, with Fed Gov. Waller (voter, dove) first in line for a payrolls reaction tomorrow at 0815ET when he speaks on the economic outlook.
• Cumulative cuts from 3.64% effective: 7bp Jan, 14bp Mar, 20bp Apr, 34bp Jun, 49.5bp Sep and 57bp Dec.
• SOFR futures are up to 1 tick lower in 2H26/1H27 contracts, with the terminal implied yield of 3.14% (Z6) holding within recent ranges.
• A reminder that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is now a slight favorite for next Fed Chair after a further boost yesterday, at 44% on Polymarket vs 42% for NEC’s Kevin Hassett. 

Front end U.S. swap spread outperformance remains a feature after last week’s frontloaded Reserve Manage Purchases (RMP) announcement from the Fed.

• TD Securities have joined the list of sell-side names looking for an extension of this move, issuing a recommendation to enter 3s10s spread curve flatteners late on Monday.
• They anticipate improved funding conditions on the back of the Fed’s RMP announcement (driving further outperformance in the front end of the curve), as well as flagging an attractive relative value proposition (10s rich in ASWs and vs. the Tsy curve) and a positive carry profile.