EM LATAM CREDIT: Gran Tierra Energy 1Q Earnings Preview: Potentially negative

• RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
• RES 2: 96.730/932 - High Sep 17 / 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
• RES 1: 96.370 - High Mar 31 
• PRICE: 96.360 @ 15:30 GMT Mar 01
• SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14 
• SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
• SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support 

Aussie 3-yr futures are again pressing toward new contract highs - clearing resistance on the continuation contract. A close at current or higher levels opens 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high. On the downside, a stronger reversal lower from current levels would signal a resumption of a downtrend. A deeper sell-off would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low.

Headlines crossed a short while ago from the WSJ around a potential new tariff option being prepared by the USTR for Trump. 

• The WSJ notes: "Trump's team in recent days has considered imposing a 20% universal tariff on virtually all imports, versus a reciprocal plan that would apply different tariffs to different countries. But the U.S. Trade Representative's office is preparing a third option-an across-the-board tariff on a subset of nations that likely would not be as high as the 20% universal tariff option, according to people with knowledge of the plans." See this link for more details.
• This follows overnight reports from Tuesday: The Washington Post reports that "White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20 percent on at least most imports to the United States, three people familiar with the matter said,".
• Also from the White House: "White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has indicated to reporters that President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs will be “effective immediately” following Trump’s White House Rose Garden announcement tomorrow, expected to take place around 16:00 ET 21:00 BST." 

• As the gold price hits levels that were (for many forecasters) a year end target, BofA is the first to flinch, suggesting that gold could reach US$3,500.
• Having hit $3,149.00 yesterday, gold retreated as profit taking set in and traders squared their positions ahead of the tariff announcements.
• Up 19% year to date, Gold has surged over 3% in three trading sessions, prior to the decline into the US market close.
• Demand for Gold ETFs remains strong with assets under management growing by over 5% this year.
• Gold’s rally is impacting markets globally with South African mining stocks putting in their best monthly performance on record in March.
• Wednesday sees the US President announcing wide ranging tariffs on ‘all’ of America’s trading partners, a move that inevitably will see counter measures and bring with it volatility.