PERU: Gov’t Rules Out Petroperu Bailout, Oct CPI Inflation Set To Remain Benign
Oct-31 11:00
- In an interview with Gestion, reported by Bloomberg, new Finance Minister Denisse Miralles said that the government will completely overhaul Petroperu’s board in the coming days. She said that the new board will be asked to present a plan with short-term measures for improving the condition of the company by the third week of November, adding that Petroperu can’t keep generating losses. She also said that a new bailout for Petroperu has been completely ruled out.
- On the data front, headline CPI inflation is expected to edge up to 1.49% y/y in October, from 1.36% y/y, keeping it in the lower half of the central bank’s 1-3% target range for an 11th consecutive month. The data are due for release tomorrow. Despite the benign inflation backdrop, the central bank is expected to keep the policy rate on hold at 4.25% for now, as economic growth remains around its potential rate, and the policy rate has already fallen very close to its neutral level.
- In other news, Fitch has affirmed Peru’s sovereign credit rating at BBB, with a stable outlook. It noted that the country’s ratings are supported by “strong external liquidity, a record of macroeconomic stability and low public debt relative to peers". It added that the ratings are "constrained by weaker governance, modest per capita income and social indicators”. As a comparison, Moody’s rates Peru at Baa1, with a stable outlook, while S&P has a BBB- rating, with a stable outlook.
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MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -12.7% SA THRU SEP 26 WK
Oct-01 11:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -12.7% SA THRU SEP 26 WK
US TSYS: Closed Until Further Notice
Oct-01 10:58
- US Government closed until further notice. First closure since Pres Trump's first term from Dec 22, 2018 to Jan 25, 2019. An estimated 750,000 federal employees expected to be furloughed according to Congressional Budget Office (CBO) based on federal agencies' contingency plans.
- Most of today's data will be released as scheduled as most provided by private sector. Exception: US Census Bureau's Construction Spending delayed until government reopens. Friday's employment report will be suspended as well, according to the BLS.
- The BLS plans to "suspend all operations. Economic data that are scheduled to be released during the lapse will not be released. All active data collection activities for BLS surveys will cease. The BLS website will not be updated with new content or restored in the event of a technical failure during a lapse." LINK
- Treasuries are trading steady to modestly mixed w/ Bonds lagging 5s-10s: Tsy Dec'25 10Y contract (TYZ5) currently trades at 112-17 (+1) on average cumulative volumes of 275k. 10Y yield at 4.1503% (+.0000). Curves twist steeper: 2s10s +.807 at 54.798, 5s30s +2.462 at 101.31.
- A short-term bear cycle in Treasury futures remains in play. Recent weakness has resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA, currently at 112-10+. A clear break of this average would undermine a bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and the next key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged, at 113-00, the Sep 24 high.
- Economic Data: MBA Mortgage Applications (0700ET), ADP Employment Change (0815ET), S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (0945ET) and ISMs (1000ET).
- Treasury Auctions: $67B 17W bills at 1130ET.
- Fedspeak: Richmond Fed Barkin moderated discussion on economy (text) (1215ET), Chicago Fed Goolsbee radio interview Marketplace (1700ET).
- Politics: WH Press Sec Leavitt briefing (1300ET). President Trump to sign executive orders (1630ET) - closed to press. Expect to see social media posts from President Trump, however.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: French Government Officials on 2026 Budget Deal Chances
Oct-01 10:54
- French government officials comment on chances for a deal on a 2026 budget -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
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