POLAND: Gov't Considers Potential Tariff Impact, Geopolitics Under Scrutiny
Mar-05 08:02
- Leaks from a report commissioned by Prime Minister Donald Tusk about the potential impact of an introduction of US tariffs on imports from the EU suggested that the estimate provided by the premier (-0.1pp of GDP) was based on a scenario where the tariffs would be applied only to steel and aluminium, according to a summary by Money.pl. The main impact from US tariffs would be through second-round effects, but Poland would not suffer as much as Czechia, Hungary and Slovakia, which are more dependent on the automotive sector.
- The US continues to provide intelligence and satellite support to Ukraine despite pausing deliveries of military hardware, according to a source report circulated by PAP news agency. US President Donald Trump told the Congress overnight that he received an "important letter" from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky which showed an intention to resume efforts towards ending the war despite the recent stand-off between the two leaders.
- Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC's) Ludwik Kotecki and senior financial-sector executives participate in a banking forum in Warsaw from 09:00GMT/10:00CET.
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EQUITIES: UK & Europe Set To Open Lower
Feb-03 08:00
Risk-off trade evident ahead of the European cash equity open, following Trump levying fresh tariffs on China, Canada & Mexico, while earmarking potential action on the EU further down the line.
- Particular focus on the auto sector given the potential for Trump tariff action and sensitivity of the sector.
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures: -2.36%
- DAX futures: -2.02%
- CAC 40 futures: -2.11%
- FTSE MIB futures: -2.14%
- FTSE 100 futures: -1.26%
USDCAD TECHS: Northbound
Feb-03 07:59
- RES 4: 1.5000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 2: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 1: 1.4793 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.4719 @ 07:59 GMT Feb 3
- SUP 1: 1.4629 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.4395 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.4284 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4261 Low Jan 20 and a key support
USDCAD has traded sharply higher today. The latest climb reinforces and strengthens current bullish conditions. The break higher has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and sets the scene for a climb towards 1.4814 next, the Apr 2003 high. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support to watch is 1.4395, the 20-day EMA.
GILTS: Slight Higher Open Seen
Feb-03 07:57
Desks point to futures opening around 92.85/95. A little above the current netting at ~92.70.
