EM LATAM CREDIT: Govt. Approves Rio Tinto Lithium Mining Project: Positive Take

May-21 14:07

Republic of Argentina (ARGENT; Caa3 pos /CCC /CCC+)
 

• Large scale investments in monetizing Argentina’s vast natural resources will be a major source of hard currency in the years to come. Lithium is a valuable commodity used in electric car batteries and for electricity storage from large scale renewable energy power plants.

• Capital controls have been oft cited as an impediment to increased investment but now that most of those capital controls have been lifted, we should see more companies take advantage of government incentives to invest.

• Multi-national mining company Rio Tinto will take advantage of a government program called RIGI (Régimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones) that promotes large-scale investment by offering less restrictive FX policies, tax advantages and international dispute resolution.

• This is the first mining project approved for RIGI treatment as previously it had been mostly energy projects, primarily related to the Vaca Muerta shale drilling region.

• There are several other mining projects awaiting approval, but government officials have said the RIGI program is to incentivize proposals for new projects and not merely help expand existing ones.

• Argentina is part of a region known as the Lithium Triangle along with Chile and Bolivia that has some of the largest lithium reserves in the world.

• Rio Tinto bought Rincon Mining in 2022 for USD825mn to test commercial development on a relatively small-scale production capacity of 3,000 tons annually and in December 2024 announced plans to scale that up to 53,000 tons annually with the planned benefits of RIGI and the country’s economic reforms in general.

• Rio Tinto has also made lithium investments in Chile, announcing recently a partnership with Chile’s government owned mining company Codelco for a 49% stake in the Maricunga project.

Historical bullets

FED: Trump Warns Of Slowing Economy Unless Fed Cuts Rates "Now"

Apr-21 13:53

S&P futures dip to session lows with Treasuries ticking up following President Trump's latest Truth Social missive on Fed rate policy. Trump says that "preemptive" rate cuts are being "called for by many", and labels Fed Chair Powell "Mr. Too Late, a major loser". Notably, he also warns of a "SLOWING of the economy" if the Fed doesn't cut rates "now", and appears to accuse the rate cuts last year as being politically motivated.

  • In other words, the White House doesn't appear to be backing down from its criticism of the Fed, which is weighing on investor perceptions of US monetary policy independence - we covered last week's developments on this front in our US Macro publication out Friday (PDF).
  • @realDonaldTrump:“Preemptive Cuts” in Interest Rates are being called for by many. With Energy Costs way down, food prices (including Biden’s egg disaster!) substantially lower, and most other “things” trending down, there is virtually No Inflation. With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW. Europe has already “lowered” seven times. Powell has always been “To Late,” except when it came to the Election period when he lowered in order to help Sleepy Joe Biden, later Kamala, get elected. How did that work out?"

FED: Chicago's Goolsbee: Central Bank Independence Key To Anchor L-R Infl Exp

Apr-21 13:01

CNBC anchors trying to pin down Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (2025 voter, dove) on the impact of President Trump potentially replacing Fed Chair Powell - Goolsbee won't be drawn into the speculation but he is emphatic that central bank independence is crucial to keeping longer-run inflation expectations down.

  • Goolsbee says without central bank independence, you get "higher inflation, worse growth, higher unemployment." And he cites Paul Volcker's example of tightening policy to quell inflation, saying "sometimes the Fed has to do the hard job".
  • That said, asked if he still sees rates being lower 12 - 18 months from now: "I still think that", identifying the March Dot Plot as a guide to the overall direction of rates.

US TSY OPTIONS: Jun'25 10Y Ratio Put Spread

Apr-21 12:35
  • 11,179 TYM5 108/111 2x1 put spds, 32 ref 110-25.5