NBP: Governor Says MPC Sees Room For Further Cuts
Governor Adam Glapiński says that members of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) see room for further rate cuts but are not yet sure when the next cut will come. There seems to be no consensus about the terminal rate at the moment.
- There is one exception to the wider mood within the MPC. Glapiński does not name names, but presumably means hawkish dissenter Joanna Tyrowicz, who repeatedly signalled her opposition to rate cuts.
- The Governor reiterates that cuts will be delivered cautiously in 25bp increments. He provides no detailed guidance on the terminal rate - reiterates that the key rate will reach 4% and then the MPC will reconsider its stance.
- Glapiński says that 'we will lower as much as not to derail the process of disinflation.' He notes that the NBP will always ease policy as soon as it becomes possible, based on available analyses.
- The Governor is frugal in his commentary on the remaining scope for monetary easing, he sees 'some' room for interest-rate cuts 'but not a lot'.
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EU-BOND SYNDICATION: 5/30-year dual-tranche: Priced
5-year
- Reoffer: 99.903 / 2.520% | MS + 119bps / 98.538 / 4.085%
- Spread set at MS + 22bp (guidance was MS + 24bps area)
- Tranche Size Set: E5bln
- Books closed in excess of E92bln (inc E4.5bln JLM interest)
- Coupon: 2.50%
- HR: 99% vs. 2.20% Oct-30 Bobl +29.5bps
- Maturity: 14 October 2030
- ISIN: EU000A4EG021
- Timing: TOE 14:43BST / 15:43CET. FTT immediately
30-year
- Reoffer: 98.538 / 4.085%
- Spread set at MS + 119bp (guidance was MS + 121bps area
- Tranche Size: E6bln (increased from E5bln, MNI had noted the potential to increase)
- Books closed in excess of E107bln (inc E6.85bln JLM interest)
- Coupon: 4.00%
- HR: 93% vs. 2.90% Aug-56 Bund +79.6bps
- Maturity: 12 October 2055
- ISIN: EU000A4EG039
- Timing: TOE 14:40BST / 15:40CET. FTT immediately
For both:
- Settlement: 16 September 2025 (T+5)
- Coupon: Long first
- JLMs: Barclays / BofA / CACIB / LBBW / MS (B&D/DM)
From market source / MNI colour
EQUITY TECHS: (U5) Bullish Structure Intact
- RES 4: 6610.98 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 6600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6543.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
- RES 1: 6541.75 High Sep 5
- PRICE: 6511.75 @ 14:40 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: 6456.35/6371.75 20-day EMA / Low Sep 2
- SUP 2: 6359.10 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 6313.25 Low Aug 6
- SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1 and a key support
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback has once again proved to be a shallow correction. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week, breaching the Aug 28 high of 6523.00. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6543.75 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 6456.35, the 20-day EMA.
US: ROK: South Korean Foreign Minister Seeks Clarity On Georgia Immigration Raid
South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun is in Washington today to discuss an immigration raid at a Hyundai-LG battery factory in Georgia that prompted a furious reaction in Seoul, and threatens to rupture relations with one of the most critical partners in the Trump administration’s high-tech revitalisation programme.
- South Korean President Lee Jae Myung told a Cabinet meeting today that he hopes this "unjust infringement" never happens again.
- Seoul-based journalist Raphael Rashid writes on X: “Korea's entire media establishment across [the] political spectrum has united in unprecedented editorial consensus expressing profound betrayal, outrage, national humiliation, and fundamental breach of US-ROK alliance...”
- “The general sentiment: while Korean media occasionally unite on domestic issues, these are usually severely politicised. Here, the level of scorn spanning from conservative establishment to progressive outlets is extraordinarily rare. They are furious,” continues Rashid.
- Politico notes: “The raid last Thursday ended with some 475 workers, including more than 300 South Koreans, detained. Video showed some of them shackled at the hands, ankles or waist. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement said an ongoing criminal investigation led it to arrest people working illegally. Hyundai said in a statement that it was reviewing its hiring practices, including those of its contractors.”
