NBP: Governor Refuses To Provide Forward Guidance

Feb-06 14:34

The Governor refuses to provide forward guidance and declares data-dependence, in line with a change in approach to forward-looking communications announced at the previous meeting. Last month the Governor said that he would cease to provide detailed commentary on the interest-rate outlook because it was "misrepresented" by analysts and reporters.

  • However, the Governor mentions some factors that may influence MPC decisions later this year. The list includes (1) easing wage growth, (2) unspecified external disinflationary shocks, and (3) lower electricity tariffs.
  • If any of these materialises, it will be fed into the forecasting model and inform MPC decisions. He stresses that the NBP will be able to cut interest rates only if inflation peaks and forecasts show its decline over the subsequent quarters.

Historical bullets

EGB SYNDICATION: Belgium 10-year: Allocations out

Jan-07 14:30
  • Size set earlier E7bln (in line with MNI expectations and same as 2023/24 10-year syndis)
  • Spread set earlier at MS+66bps (guidance was +68bps area)
  • Books closed in excess of E89bln (ex JLM interest)
  • Maturity: 22-June-2035
  • HR 103% vs 2.60% Aug-34 Bund
  • Settlement: 14-January-2025 (T+5)
  • Coupon: Annual ACT/ACT, short first to 22-June-2025
  • ISIN: BE0000363722
  • Bookrunners: BNPP (DM/B&D) / CACIB / HSBC / JPM / MS
  • Timing: Allocations out, hedge deadline 14:50GMT / 15:50CET. Pricing to follow

From market source

EQUITIES: US Cash opening calls

Jan-07 14:26

SPX: 6,003.3 (+0.5%); DJIA: 42,897 (+0.4%/+190pts); NDX: 21,632.4 (+0.3%).

PIPELINE: $5B ADB 3Y SOFR Debt Launched

Jan-07 14:23

Shaping up to be another busy day for corporate bond issuance - unlikely to outpace Monday's record $59.55B.

  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 01/07 $5B #ADB 3Y SOFR+31
  • 01/07 $1b #Kuwait Finance House (KFH) 5Y SOFR Sukuk +95
  • 01/07 $6B European Investment Bank (EIB) 5Y SOFR+42
  • 01/07 $500M DBJ WNG 10Y SOFR+73
  • 01/07 $500M Boston Gas WNG 10Y +145a
  • 01/07 $Benchmark Chile 12Y +137.5a
  • 01/07 $Benchmark World Bank 7Y +54
  • 01/07 $Benchmark Met Tower 3Y +70a
  • 01/07 $Benchmark CIBC 5Y SOFR+75a
  • 01/07 $Benchmark Protective Life 7& +105a
  • 01/07 $Benchmark Kommunalbanken 5Y +51
  • 01/07 $Benchmark Santander 5Y +135a, 10Y +160a
  • 01/07 $Benchmark APA Corp 10Y +180a, 30Y +215a
  • 01/07 $Benchmark Cncl of Europe Dev Bank 5Y SOFR+45a
  • 01/07 $Benchmark GA Global Funding 5Y +120a, 10Y +150a
  • 01/07 $Benchmark HPS Corporate Lending 3Y +165a, +7Y +195a
  • 01/07 $Benchmark Kexim 3Y +55a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +75a, 10Y +90a
  • 01/07 $Benchmark SMFG 5.25Y +100, 5.25Y SOFR, 7Y +110a, 10Y +120a
  • 01/07 $Benchmark Daimler Truck Fin NA 3Y, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +105a, 7Y +115a, 10Y +125a
  • Expected Wednesday:
  • 01/08 $Benchmark Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) 5Y SOFR+45a