POLAND: Governor Glapinski To Hold Presser After Expected On-Hold Rate Decision
- Governor Adam Glapinski will hold a press conference at 14:00GMT/15:00CET after the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) left interest rates unchanged Wednesday, in line with unanimous consensus and its own guidance. Despite the government's decision to extend household energy price caps, the Council warned that "developments in energy prices, due to their probable unfreezing in the second half of 2025, as well as the impact of elevated energy price growth on inflation expectations, remain an uncertainty factor for the expected horizon for the return of inflation to the target." Today's presser should provide more clarity on the debates taking place within the MPC and on the interest-rate outlook.
- BusinessInsider reported that the NBP is forecasting a financial loss of around PLN7.4bn for FY2024/25 in its latest financial plan, which means that no funds would be transferred from the central bank to the state budget for the third consecutive year.
- The Left denied a report by Polityka Insight suggesting that Deputy Senate Speaker Magdalena Biejat could be the party's presidential candidate. According to the party's spokesman, the decision has not been made yet.
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SWEDEN: Strong Services PMI Won’t Sway Riksbank
Only three analysts had submitted forecasts for the October Swedish services PMI, but the 52.9 print was still notably above the 50.0 median and September’s 48.9 (initial 49.1). Much like last week’s stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMI, the data provides the opposite signal to the October Economic Tendency Indicator's services sentiment.
- This shouldn’t have an impact on Thursday’s Riksbank decision, where a 50bp cut is widely expected. The Economic Tendency Indicator is generally considered a more reliable measure of sentiment in Sweden.
- There was a notable pickup in the PMI production (56.1 vs 47.2 prior) and new orders (56.4 vs 50.2 prior) components, while prices paid also ticked up to 50.7 (vs 48.3 prior).
- However, the employment component continued to deteriorate to 43.4 (vs 46.0 prior).
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Short-Term Bearish Threat
- RES 4: 6012.75 1.00 projection of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6000.00 Psychological handle
- RES 2: 5961.00 1.00 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 5816.84/5927.25 20-day EMA / High Oct 17 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 5754.50 @ 07:19 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 5724.00 Low Oct 2
- SUP 2: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 5637.60 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Oct 17 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 5600.25 Low Sep 12
S&P E-Minis traded sharply lower last Thursday and the contract is trading just above its recent low. Price has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs - an important short-term bearish development. The break lower signals scope for an extension and has exposed the next support at 5724.00, the Oct 2 low. Clearance of this level would open 5637.60, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is 5816.84, the 20-day EMA.
STIR: Euribor Futures Stick To Tight Ranges Ahead of US Election Results
Euribor futures are flat to -2.0 ticks through the blues, having traded in a tight overnight range ahead of tonight’s US election results.
- ECB-dated OIS remain broadly within recent ranges, with 28bps of cuts priced through December and 120bps of easing priced through September 2025.
- ECB’s Vujcic is scheduled to speak on Croatia’s Euro adoption at 0845GMT/0945CET, while Executive Board member Schnabel gives a lecture at Harvard University at 1830GMT (text to be released on the ECB’s website).
- See here for a summary of last week’s ECB-speak.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Dec-24 | 2.879 | -28.4 |
| Jan-25 | 2.601 | -56.2 |
| Mar-25 | 2.356 | -80.7 |
| Apr-25 | 2.209 | -95.5 |
| Jun-25 | 2.068 | -109.5 |
| Jul-25 | 2.009 | -115.4 |
| Sep-25 | 1.966 | -119.8 |
| Oct-25 | 1.960 | -120.4 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
