US: Government Shutdown Yet To Weigh On Trump's Approval Rating
Oct-09 17:29
Silver Bulletin notes that the government shutdown has been "a relatively low-key affair so far," fr...
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ECB: MNI ECB Preview: Growth Outlook Watched Amidst Data Dependence
Sep-09 17:25
- We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI ECB Preview, including MNI analysis plus analyst views on what to expect at this month's meeting.
- Please find the full report here: https://media.marketnews.com/ECB_Preview_Sep2025_45838e0072.pdf
- The ECB is fully expected to leave its three key rates on hold on Thursday, with its deposit rate at 2.00%.
- ECB President Lagarde is expected to continue to suggest policy is in a good place.
- A data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach is expected to be reiterated in a continuation of July’s “deliberatively uninformative” communication approach around future rate decisions.
- Lagarde’s characterisation of economic resilience and/or the extent to which uncertainty has been alleviated by the US-EU trade deal should help shape market reaction.
- Fresh economic projections aren’t expected to be material.
- Recent resilience sees cuts no longer fully priced, with a cumulative 18bp of cuts seen out to mid-2026.
- We judge that the median analyst no longer looks for another cut although the bias is clearly still lower, with 7 of 25 looking for one more cut and 4 looking for two more.
- EUR/USD approaches the meeting after recent strength has seen it tilt back closer to 1.18, a level shortly after which drew unusually direct comments from ECB’s De Guindos back at the Sintra conference.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review 3Y Note Auction: Stops Through
Sep-09 17:04
- Treasury futures remain weaker but paring losses after $58B 3Y note auction (91282CNY3) stops through: drawing 3.485% high yield vs. 3.492% WI; 2.73x bid-to-cover vs. 2.53x prior.
- Peripheral stats see indirect take-up rises to 74.24% vs. 53.99% prior; direct bidder take-up retreats to 17.39% from 28.13% prior; primary dealer take-up 8.37% vs. 17.88% prior.
- The next 3Y auction is tentatively scheduled for October 7.
FED: US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 3.485%; ALLOTMENT 24.56%
Sep-09 17:02
- US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 3.485%; ALLOTMENT 24.56%
- US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 8.37% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 17.39% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 74.24% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 3Y AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.73
