SWITZERLAND: Government Revises 2026 GDP Forecast 0.3ppt Lower, 2025 Unchanged
The Swiss government (SECO) forecasts GDP growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026. The 2025 is unchanged and 2026 downgraded 0.3ppt from 1.2% compared to those published on June 16. SECO inflation projections continue to be well within the SNB's defined range of price stability.
- The forecast downward revision is not unexpected following the incorporation of US tariffs, and these forecasts are consistent with an SNB policy rate of 0% for the foreseeable future.
- The update "reflects expectations of a weak second half of 2025 and is based on the technical assumption that international tariffs will remain at current levels. Under these conditions, the Expert Group expects global demand for Swiss goods and services to expand only modestly in the coming quarters.", SECO comments.
- "In 2026, both exports and equipment investment are expected to be weaker than previously projected."
- "Inflation is projected at 0.2% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026 (June forecasts: 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively)."
- "Overall, downside risks currently dominate. A deterioration in the international environment cannot be ruled out. Financial markets remain vulnerable to significant corrections. Risks related to global debt – especially sovereign debt – have intensified. Balance sheet risks in financial institutions and vulnerabilities in real estate markets also persist. Geopolitical risks remain elevated, particularly in connection with the armed conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Should any of these risks materialise, further upward pressure on the Swiss franc would be expected."
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NORWAY: Statistics Norway Only Expects One More Norges Bank Cut This Year
Statistics Norway has revised up its Norges Bank terminal rate forecast to 3.50%, from 3.25% in the June projection round. Stats Norway’s head of research notes that “A marked upturn in the Norwegian economy and surprisingly high wage growth mean that we only expect one further interest rate cut this year and two more next year. This will bring the key rate down to 3.5 per cent towards the end of 2026”
- The Norges Bank decision, which includes an updated MPR and set of forecasts, is due on Thursday. It’s set to be a close call, but we currently lean against consensus in favour of a hold at 4.25%. Full preview here
- Statistics Norway writes that “Household purchasing power has increased and income growth will continue for the next years. In addition, the state has gained greater purchasing power because of the enormous increase in the petroleum fund, which provides scope for a continued expansionary fiscal policy in the near term”
- Additionally, it highlights that wage growth has been “surprisingly high” in 2025. The 2025 full-year wage growth projection has thus been revised up to 4.9% (well above Norges Bank’s 4.5% forecast).
- Stats Norway plays down the recent rise in the LFS unemployment rate, emphasising that this has been driven by labour force increases.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6700 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- PRICE: 0.6666 @ 07:57 BST Sep 16
- SUP 1: 0.6568/6531 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 4: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg
AUDUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest rally plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The climb opens the 0.6700 handle next. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. Initial firm support to monitor lies at 0.6531, the 50-day EMA.
GILTS: Opening Calls
Gilt calls, 91.45/91.46.
