US: GOP Seen As Shutdown Winners, Trump's Approval Soft On Economic Concerns
Nov-17 19:03
CBS News reports, from a new survey conducted by YouGov, “There's some relief that the government shutdown is over, but Democrats are more likely to say they're frustrated about the deal that ended it, and that their party compromised too much. By a wide margin, Americans say it was Republicans and President Trump who succeeded in getting more of what they wanted from the negotiations to end the shutdown.”
- CBS adds, “So what now? The shutdown did seem to have the effect of highlighting health care issues: Most say that was at least included among the issues debated. Today, two-thirds think that health insurance premiums will increase in the coming months, now that the shutdown has ended.”
- According to Silver Bulletin, Trump's approval rating (-13.2%) has bounced slightly off lows hit during the final week of the government shutdown. The next few weeks may show a post-shutdown rebound for Trump, or continue to sink lower if the Trump administration fails to ease concerns over prices.
- CNN reports that Trump's approval rating is falling rapidly amongst Latino voters, with many citing concerns over the economy. A new CNN survey found that, "just 20% of Latinos approved of [Trump's] job performance, down from 41% in February. This 21-point drop far outpaces the 4- and 9-point drops among Black and White Americans and the 10-point drop in his approval rating overall."
Figure 1: “Ending the Shutdown: Who Got More of What They Wanted?”
Source: CBS News/YouGov
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
Oct-17 20:51
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
Oct-17 20:30
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Oct-17 20:28
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
