US: GOP Leader Thune's New Shutdown Strategy Unlikely To Break Deadlock

13:30 ET 18:30 BST: Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) will hold a procedural vote in the Senate on the full-year Pentagon spending bill. The vote, Thune’s first major shift in government shutdown strategy, will force Democrats to publicly oppose a bill that would ensure US troops are paid during the shutdown.

• The Pentagon bill was discharged from committee in a bipartisan 26-3 vote earlier this year as part of the regular appropriations process. However, we expect Democrats to block the bill to maintain leverage as they press for negotiations on healthcare.
• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) confirmed that emergency funds used to pay troops yesterday will not extend to the next military payday on October 31. Republicans will hammer Senate Democrats with troop pay at every opportunity before and after today’s vote on the Pentagon bill. 
• At 11:00 ET 16:00 BST, Thune is expected to hold a tenth vote on the House-passed November 21 funding bill. The vote will fail again. Throughout the shutdown, three Democrats have voted in favour of the bill, and one Republican against. There has been nothing to suggest this will change today. Thune’s strategy of re-running the vote until five addtional Democrats vote 'yes' has yet to break the deadlock.
• According to Kalshi, the shutdown is expected to last roughly 40 days, which would make it the longest in US history. 

Figure 1: How long will the government shutdown last?

Source: Kalshi