US CREDIT UPDATE: Golub Capital BDC (GBDC): 4Q25 Results
Golub Capital BDC: 4Q25 Results
(GBDC; Baa2/BBB-/BBB)
Missed BBG consensus on the top line and matched on earnings. Portfolio was up YOY and portfolio composition remains strong. Balance sheet remains heavy in secured/pledged debt. Credit neutral. Trades at fair value and at a similar spread to GSBD, MSDL and BXSL.
• Total investment income was $217.8m lower than BBG consensus of $221.5m
• Net investment income of $104.3m, better than consensus of $102.8m
• Adj realized/unrealized loss was $8.2m.
• Adj EPS of $0.39/sh matched consensus.
• Debt/equity was 1.25x. Total liquidity was $1.3b and was 1.3x unfunded commitments. 49% of total debt was unsecured.
• Total assets were $9.0b.
• Total portfolio value was $8.8b, down from $8.9b in Q2 and up from $8.2b last year.
• Senior secured debt was 92% of the total. Equity was 7% of the total.
• Weighted avg yield on investments was 10.4%, down from 12.0% last year.
• Non-accruals were 0.3% of the total portfolio, down from 0.6% in Q2. Full year PIK income was 6% of total investment income.
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NZD: NZD/USD Little Changed Post As Expected CPI, AUD/NZD Drifts Up
NZD/USD is little changed, last 0.5720/25, in the aftermath of the NZ CPI print, which was close to market and RBNZ forecasts. Outside of the 1.0%q/q headline rise (the consensus was 0.9%), we got as expected outcomes for headline y/y and the trade and non-tradable inflation outcomes. This is unlikely to change RBNZ thinking or market pricing around a further 25bps cut in Nov.
- NZD/USD still looks a little elevated relative to NZ-US 2yr swap spreads, last near -87bps. However, this spread has largely tracked sideways in Oct to date.
- The AUD/NZD is up a touch post the Q3 CPI print, last near 1.1355/60, after opening near 1.1330.
NEW ZEALAND: Q3 CPI Consistent With RBNZ Thinking
Q3 CPI printed very close to consensus and the RBNZ’s August projections with a couple of quarterly increases a bit higher. Thus, this outcomes is unlikely to derail any further easing in November. Headline rose 1.0% q/q to 3% y/y after 0.5% & 2.7% in Q2, the top of the target band, with tradeables up 0.8% q/q and domestically-driven non-tradeables +1.1%. See Statistics NZ release here. More details to follow.
AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Strong Weekly Close
- RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
- RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
- RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12
- PRICE: 96.620 @ 16:28 BST Oct 17
- SUP 1: 96.280 - Low May 15 (cont.)
- SUP 2: 95.900 - Low Jan 14 (cont.)
- SUP 3: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
Aussie 3-yr futures surged on the resumption of trade after the weekend, returning focus higher despite the break of support last week. Short-term resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, has been broken, with 96.780 is the next upside target. Clearance of this level puts markets at fresh multi-month highs. 96.280 marks next major support - but markets are some way off this mark now.
