PERU: Goldman Sachs Still Sees Final 25bp BCRP Rate Cut in H2
Aug-15 09:17
- Following last night’s BCRP rate hold, Goldman Sachs notes that the forward guidance remained data-dependent, offering no hint about the next policy move. GS still anticipates a final 25bp rate cut to 4.25%, bringing the monetary stance to broad neutrality, given an expected real interest rate of 2.3% compared to an estimated real neutral rate of 2.0%.
- While their base case remains a September cut, its materialisation is contingent on the external environment. Following yesterday’s meeting, they see an increased probability that this cut will be postponed to Q4.
- GS interprets the omission of any reference to the global inflation outlook by the BCRP as reinforcing the need for a cautious stance, prioritising policy flexibility given uncertainty surrounding the timing and magnitude of potential FOMC rate cuts.
- With a largely closed output gap, well-anchored inflation expectations, and only a marginally restrictive policy stance, there is limited urgency for the BCRP to either address inflationary pressures or stimulate economic growth.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
GILT AUCTION RESULTS: 4.50% Sep-34 Gilt Tender Result
Jul-16 09:03
| 4.50% Sep-34 Gilt | |
| Amount | GBP1.50bln |
| Avg yield | 4.547% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.32x |
| Tail | 0.4bp |
| Avg price | 99.600 |
| Low price | 99.573 |
| Pre-auction mid | 99.571 |
FOREX: Greenback Consolidating Tuesday Advance, GBP Contained Post CPI
Jul-16 08:57
- G10 currency ranges have been very contained early Wednesday, allowing the US dollar to consolidate the prior day’s broad-based advance following the release of US inflation figures. The recent USD index recovery has now extended to around 2.3% from cycle lows printed on July 01. The rally marks the cleanest evidence yet of a material break of the downtrend posted off the February high, bolstered by a clean break above the 20-day EMA.
- USDJPY moderately extended its significant upswing overnight, printing at the highest level since April 03 at 149.18. Bullish momentum was underpinned by the rising US yields and breaks above the June and May highs likely exacerbated the move. The May high around 148.65 has provided support this morning, keeping a short-term bullish theme prominent.
- the next focus will be on 149.38, the 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg, and 150.49, the Apr 2 high.
- Despite headline and core CPI in the UK surprising to the upside, we think the BOE will largely describe inflation in the August MPR as broadly in line with their forecast. This explains the very limited reaction for GBP this morning, as markets assess the upcoming labour market data on Thursday and bearish technical developments for the pound.
- GBPUSD breached important trendline support below 1.3430 yesterday, drawn from the Jan 13 low. A clear break of the trendline strengthens a bearish threat and exposes 1.3335, the May 20 low.
- The data focus later today will be on US PPI, industrial production and the Fed’s beige book. There are also various FOMC speakers expected.
BONDS: Bonds Off Lows As Technical Supports Hold & Oil Softens
Jul-16 08:52
A downtick in crude oil helps stabilise wider core global FI.
- Technicals also play a part, with gilt futures respecting their early June low (91.16), while TY futures fail to break through Tuesday/overnight lows.
- Benchmark futures trade away from lows on the follow.
