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• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.65 1.382 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing               
• PRICE: 120.02 @ Close Apr 28  
• SUP 1: 119.42/118.96 High Apr 22 / 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 117.28 Low Apr 10     
• SUP 3: 116.06 Low Apr 9  
• SUP 4: 115.75 Low Apr 14 and a bear trigger     

BTP futures have traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last Thursday’s strong rally reinforces current bullish conditions. The move higher resulted in the break of key resistance at 120.39, the Feb 28 high. Sights are on 120.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch lies at 118.96, the 20-day EMA. The contract is overbought, a pullback would unwind this trend condition.

• RES 4: 147.05 50-day EMA   
• RES 3: 146.54 Low Mar 11  
• RES 2: 144.24 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 144.03 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 142.46 @ 07:00 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 141.49 Low Apr 23   
• SUP 2: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 4: 138.07  Low Jul 28 ‘23

The recovery that started Apr 22 in USDJPY is considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 144.24, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at 147.05. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a Fibonacci projection.

• MNI: SWEDEN MAR RETAIL SALES +3.6% Y/Y