CZECHIA: Goldman Sachs Expect CNB to Deliver One More Rate Cut This Year
Sep-04 13:54
- Goldman Sachs expect the CNB to maintain a relatively hawkish tone, at least for now. However, they remain less concerned than the CNB on the Czech inflation outlook – given the openness of Czechia’s economy, GS believe external factors typically dominate domestic factors in driving inflation dynamics.
- They note that year-to-date, CZK has appreciated by ~6% on a trade-weighted basis and that relatively weak global commodity prices should provide an additional disinflationary impulse.
- Goldman Sachs believe these factors will contribute to a decline in both headline and core inflation throughout the rest of the year and, reflecting this, they expect the CNB to deliver one more cut this year and to continue cutting to a terminal rate of +2.75% next year.
Other post-CPI sell-side views can be found here.
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