COMMODITIES: Gold Remains in a Clear Bull Cycle, Close to Fresh Record Highs
The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and continues to trade at its recent highs. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh all-time high again this week. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3674.8, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3504.1, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude down $0.03 or -0.05% at $62.33
- Natural Gas down $0.03 or -0.85% at $2.909
- Gold spot up $7.1 or +0.2% at $3641.38
- Copper up $2.35 or +0.5% at $468.25
- Silver up $0.68 or +1.65% at $42.2305
- Platinum up $4.26 or +0.31% at $1387.89
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COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Remain Weak After Break of Bear Trigger
WTI futures traded poorly Friday, cracking the 50-day EMA and piercing the bear trigger. This keeps S/T momentum pointed lower. The clear break exposes $58.17, the May 30 low. Gains early last week marked an extension of a corrective cycle - which may now have concluded. $69.41 marks the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg - an important level. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point. Gold traded lower at the start of the week, but last week's strength returned prices toward the top-end of the recent range and supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal is within close proximity to support at $3334.75, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high.
- WTI Crude down $0.61 or -0.97% at $62.56
- Natural Gas down $0 or -0.04% at $2.807
- Gold spot up $12.28 or +0.37% at $3360.53
- Copper down $0.3 or -0.07% at $458.25
- Silver up $0.58 or +1.53% at $38.507
- Platinum up $5.85 or +0.44% at $1349.45
EQUITIES: E-Mini S&P Trading at Fresh Cycle High
The bounce off post-NFP lows in global equity indices has held, with the Eurostoxx 50 future still above the 50-day EMA. Additional strength refocuses attention on 5486.00, the May 20 high. To the downside, recent impulsive weakness did result in a temporary breach of the bear trigger - this makes the April 30 hi/lo range at 5078-5138 the area of downside interest. E-mini S&P prices recovered well Friday, meaning the bulk of the bounce off the NFP low is holding firm, keeping the underlying uptrend intact. The index holds above support at the 20-day EMA, at 6371.43 and is at a fresh cycle high. Through recent phases of weakness, the 50-day EMA at 6249.46, has held as support - and will be important on any intraday declines. Clearance of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. The primary trend remains up, leaving key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 6468.50, the Jul 31 high.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 556.5 pts or +1.3% at 43274.67 and the TOPIX ended 25.54 pts higher or +0.83% at 3091.91.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 17.547 pts or +0.48% at 3683.465 and the HANG SENG ended 643.99 pts higher or +2.58% at 25613.67.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 186.73 pts or +0.78% at 24210.64, FTSE 100 higher by 14.64 pts or +0.16% at 9162.17, CAC 40 up 31.86 pts or +0.41% at 7785.39 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 42.05 pts or +0.79% at 5378.2.
- Dow Jones mini up 86 pts or +0.19% at 44644, S&P 500 mini up 11 pts or +0.17% at 6479.5, NASDAQ mini up 60.25 pts or +0.25% at 23998.
BTP: Block Trades in 2yr and 10yr
ouple of Italian 2yr and 10yr Block trades, it looks closely weighted and could be a flattener.
- BTSU5 ~2.34k sold at 107.76.
- IKU5 1k bought at 121.12.
