COMMODITIES: Gold Remains in a Clear Bull Cycle, Close to Fresh Record Highs

WTI futures traded poorly Friday, cracking the 50-day EMA and piercing the bear trigger. This keeps S/T momentum pointed lower. The clear break exposes $58.17, the May 30 low. Gains early last week marked an extension of a corrective cycle - which may now have concluded. $69.41 marks the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg - an important level. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point. Gold traded lower at the start of the week, but last week's strength returned prices toward the top-end of the recent range and supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal is within close proximity to support at $3334.75, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high.            

• WTI Crude down $0.61 or -0.97% at $62.56
• Natural Gas down $0 or -0.04% at $2.807
• Gold spot up $12.28 or +0.37% at $3360.53
• Copper down $0.3 or -0.07% at $458.25
• Silver up $0.58 or +1.53% at $38.507
• Platinum up $5.85 or +0.44% at $1349.45

The bounce off post-NFP lows in global equity indices has held, with the Eurostoxx 50 future still above the 50-day EMA. Additional strength refocuses attention on 5486.00, the May 20 high. To the downside, recent impulsive weakness did result in a temporary breach of the bear trigger - this makes the April 30 hi/lo range at 5078-5138 the area of downside interest. E-mini S&P prices recovered well Friday, meaning the bulk of the bounce off the NFP low is holding firm, keeping the underlying uptrend intact. The index holds above support at the 20-day EMA, at 6371.43 and is at a fresh cycle high. Through recent phases of weakness, the 50-day EMA at 6249.46, has held as support - and will be important on any intraday declines. Clearance of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. The primary trend remains up, leaving key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 6468.50, the Jul 31 high.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 556.5 pts or +1.3% at 43274.67 and the TOPIX ended 25.54 pts higher or +0.83% at 3091.91.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 17.547 pts or +0.48% at 3683.465 and the HANG SENG ended 643.99 pts higher or +2.58% at 25613.67.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 186.73 pts or +0.78% at 24210.64, FTSE 100 higher by 14.64 pts or +0.16% at 9162.17, CAC 40 up 31.86 pts or +0.41% at 7785.39 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 42.05 pts or +0.79% at 5378.2.
• Dow Jones mini up 86 pts or +0.19% at 44644, S&P 500 mini up 11 pts or +0.17% at 6479.5, NASDAQ mini up 60.25 pts or +0.25% at 23998.

ouple of Italian 2yr and 10yr Block trades, it looks closely weighted and could be a flattener.

• BTSU5 ~2.34k sold at 107.76.
• IKU5 1k bought at 121.12.