COMMODITIES: Gold Recovery Highlights Possible False Break of Trendline

The Netherlands' Council of Ministers, now sitting as a minority gov't, will meet today at 13:30CET (07:30ET, 12:30BST) to assess its options. This comes after Geert Wilders, leader of the right-wing nationalist Party for Freedom (PVV), withdrew his party from gov't amid disagreements over proposals for stricter asylum policies. The minority gov't is now composed of the conservative pro-business People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), anti-graft New Social Contract (NSC), and agrarian populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB). Together, they hold a combined 53 seats in the House of Representatives, well short of the 76 required for an overall majority. 

• NSC leader Nicolien van Vroonhoven has said that there is the prospect that the minority gov't could look to continue in office, requiring support on a vote-by-vote basis in parliament. She says that "It is absolutely not undesirable. It is not the easiest way to do politics, but it is a way to ensure that the entire House is involved." However, this could be scuppered by the BBB.
• Its leader, Caroline van der Plas says that snap elections are not a given, "An option is that other parties try to work together, instead of holding elections", but that the BBB could not be part of any gov't, adding "For me, the coalition is finished."
• A number of opposition leaders have called for snap elections following the withdrawal of the PVV from gov't. King Willem-Alexander is due in the Czech Republic today for a state visit, but may have to remain in country in order to receive PM Dick Schoof and accept the resignation of the gov't.
• The likelihood of another workable coalition would appear slim at present. However, given the proportional electoral system and a plethora of parties in parliament, the Dutch political system has become adept at reaching consensus and compromise in forming gov'ts. 

Chart 1. Dutch House of Representatives, Seats 

Source: houseofrepresentatives.nl, MNI. N.b. Numbers in parentheses indicate change in seats in 2023 election. 

WTI futures are in consolidation mode but remain closer to their recent highs. A bear threat remains present and the recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to monitor is $62.47, the 50-day EMA. It has again been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and yesterday’s gains reinforce current conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger to watch, has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.

• WTI Crude up $0.3 or +0.48% at $62.84
• Natural Gas down $0.01 or -0.27% at $3.684
• Gold spot down $19.75 or -0.58% at $3361.33
• Copper down $11.25 or -2.32% at $474.7
• Silver down $0.52 or -1.5% at $34.244
• Platinum down $9.23 or -0.86% at $1059.27

The trend cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bull theme. Key support to watch lies at 5258.36, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible reversal. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. Recent gains delivered a print above 5993.50, the May 20 high and a bull trigger. The break highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 6000.00 has been pierced, an extension would open 6057.00 next, the Mar 3 high. Key support lies at 5756.81, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a reversal.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 23.86 pts or -0.06% at 37446.81 and the TOPIX ended 6.18 pts lower or -0.22% at 2771.11.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 14.489 pts or +0.43% at 3361.976 and the HANG SENG ended 354.52 pts higher or +1.53% at 23512.49.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 24.18 pts or -0.1% at 23907.42, FTSE 100 lower by 26.68 pts or -0.3% at 8747.59, CAC 40 down 32.09 pts or -0.41% at 7703.87 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 19.52 pts or -0.36% at 5335.3.
• Dow Jones mini down 197 pts or -0.46% at 42174, S&P 500 mini down 29.5 pts or -0.5% at 5917.5, NASDAQ mini down 97 pts or -0.45% at 21436.5.