COMMODITIES: Gold Recovers Well From Recent Lows
WTI futures traded to a fresh S/T cycle high Wednesday before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.82, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. Wednesday’s price pattern is a shooting star - a reversal signal. Gold has recovered from its recent lows. The climb signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged, they remain bullish. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.
- WTI Crude down $0.43 or -0.7% at $60.76
- Natural Gas up $0.04 or +1.11% at $3.288
- Gold spot up $29.71 or +0.9% at $3324.2
- Copper up $5.35 or +1.14% at $473.15
- Silver up $0.14 or +0.42% at $33.191
- Platinum up $6.07 or +0.56% at $1087.3
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EQUITIES: EU Bank call spread
SX7E (19th Dec) 195/220cs, bought for 4.8 in 6k vs 1.26k at 174.90.
EGB SYNDICATION: Austria Triple Tranche Tap: Spreads set
2.50% Oct-29 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3EPP2)
- Spread set at MS + 19bp (guidance was MS+20 Area)
- Size: Benchmark
- Books in excess of E12bln (inc E1.15bln JLM interest)
3.20% Jul-39 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3D3Q8)
- Spread set at MS + 66bp (guidance was MS+67 Area)
- Size: Benchmark
- Books in excess of E16bln (inc E850mln JLM interest)
3.15% Oct-53 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A33SK7)
- Spread set at MS + 97bp (guidance was MS+98 Area)
- Size: Benchmark
- Books in excess of E18bln (inc E1.7bln JLM interest)
For all:
- Settlement: April 30, 2025 (T+5)
- Bookrunners: Barclays (B&D), Citi, DB, GS, JPM, Raiffeisen Bank
- Timing: Books to close at 10:15BST / 11:15CET
From market source
CROSS ASSET: Gilts Tick Higher & GBP Softens After Soft UK PMI
Initial market reaction to the softer-than-expected flash PMIs sees gilt futures hit fresh session highs at 92.95, adding a little over 20 ticks vs. pre-data levels, before fading back to 92.80.
- Next resistance in the contract located at 93.00, followed by a Fibonacci retracement (93.44).
- Yields 3.5bp higher to 9bp lower, twist flattening bias intact. Long end yields fail to retest early session lows.
- BoE-dated OIS covering ’25 meetings little changed to 1.5bp more dovish vs. pre-PMI levels, with ~92bp of cuts showing through year-end. Recent range extremes of ~97bp of cuts over that horizon remains untested/intact.
- SONIA futures also rally before fading a little, last -3.0 to +1.0, strip twist flattens.
- Cycle highs set earlier in April/yesterday (dependent on contract) are untested.
- Alongside the new daily highs in Gilts, EUR/GBP rallies to touch 0.8578 before fading somewhat - the 15-minute candle chart isolates 0.8587 as resistance, the downtrendline drawn off the Monday AM high.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
May-25 | 4.207 | -25.2 |
Jun-25 | 4.079 | -38.0 |
Aug-25 | 3.867 | -59.2 |
Sep-25 | 3.741 | -71.8 |
Nov-25 | 3.592 | -86.7 |
Dec-25 | 3.537 | -92.2 |
